Heat supply system source load uncertainty calculation method based on orthogonal polynomial

Abstract

The invention discloses a heat supply system source load uncertainty calculation method based on an orthogonal polynomial. The method comprises the steps that S1, according to renewable energy source output or heat load accessed by a heat supply system and historical operation data of related factors of the renewable energy source output or heat load, original point moments of all orders of the heat supply system are calculated; s2, selecting a corresponding weighting function and an orthogonal polynomial function according to the approximate distribution type of the historical operation data; s3, based on the selected weighting function and orthogonal polynomial function expansion, calculating a cumulative distribution function of the historical operation data; s4, solving a quantile corresponding to a given cumulative probability value through a numerical method according to the obtained cumulative distribution function; and S5, calculating a probability prediction credible interval corresponding to each data point under a given credible level. According to the method, the fluctuation interval range of the renewable energy output of the supply side or the heat load of the demand side and related factors thereof at a certain moment in the future can be rapidly calculated, double influences caused by the uncertainty of the source load of the heat supply system are effectively coped with, and safe and stable operation and heat supply quality of the heat supply system are guaranteed.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of load forecasting and operation dispatching of integrated energy systems and district heating systems, and specifically relates to a method for calculating source load uncertainty of heating systems based on orthogonal polynomials. Background technique [0002] Under the background of dual carbon, the heating field also urgently needs to build a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient new heating system: on the heat source side, a high proportion of renewable energy connected to the heating system is an important trend in the development of the heating system in the future. However, the production process of renewable energy such as photovoltaic and wind power is affected by the weather and environment, and has the characteristics of intermittent and fluctuation, and its randomness and uncertainty bring challenges to the safety and stability of the heating system; in On the heat load side, the heat load at the end of ...

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Problems solved by technology

[0002] Under the background of dual carbon, the heating field also urgently needs to build a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient new heating system: on the heat source side, a high proportion of renewable energy connected to the heating system is an important trend in the development of the heating system in the future. However, the production process of renewable energy such as photovoltaic and wind power is affected by the weather and environment, and has the characteristics of intermittent and fluctuation, and its randomness and uncertainty bring challenges to the safety and stability of the heating system; in On the heat load side, the heat load at the end of the building also fluctuates due to the influence of factors such as the behavior and habits of the heat users at the end of the building, social life, physiology and psychology.

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