Method for cooperatively estimating distribution change and productivity of larch under climatic change condition

Abstract

The invention discloses a larch distribution change and productivity collaborative estimation method under climatic change conditions. The method comprises the following steps: determining larch artificial forest tree species parameters of a forest farm level 3PG model and forest farm level climatic data; and inputting tree species parameters and climate data of the artificial larch forest. According to the larch distribution change and productivity collaborative estimation method under the climatic change condition, distribution and productivity change of a forest farm larch man-made forest can be predicted at the same time, and the influence of climatic change on the larch man-made forest can be evaluated; according to the method, main climate limiting factors of growth of the larch under current and future climate change conditions and changes of distribution and productivity of the larch can be evaluated in detail, the changes influence one another under a unified framework, the method has biological interpretation significance, productivity main variables interested by forest managers are provided, and the forest managers can learn about the growth of the larch. And the distribution and growth potential of the future larch man-made forest can be cooperatively evaluated in space and time.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the fields of forestry and forest management, in particular to a method for synergistic estimation of larch distribution change and productivity under climate change conditions. Background technique [0002] Larix is ​​one of the important coniferous tree species in my country, and it is the fourth most important arbor species in China. According to the China Forest Resources Report (2014-2018), the area of ​​larch forest in the timber forest is 3.9855 million hectares, accounting for 5.86%, about 8.083 billion plant, with a storage capacity of 936.3 million cubic meters. Larch plays an important role in the environment, timber supply and human society. Climatic factors such as temperature and precipitation strongly affect the physiological characteristics of larch, and climate change may alter the future distribution and growth of this tree species. China is experiencing climate change in temperature, precipitation, etc., as ...

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Problems solved by technology

[0003] The traditional statistical growth-harvest equation is usually used to predict the future stand growth of larch plantations, but there are no climate factors such as temperature and precipitation in the model variables, and the prediction of future growth is based on the past climate-growth relationship, so it is more variable in Estimating limited capacity of stand growth under future climate conditions

[0004] The linear regression model constructed by adding biogeographic and climatic factors to the traditional growth and harvest equation has poor generalization, and the nonlinear regression model is prone to overfitting, poor generalization at the regional scale, and low biological interpretation. These methods cannot Nor has it been simultaneously used to model changes in the geographic distribution of larch plantation adaptations under future climate change

[0005] Since future climate changes may change the geographical distribution structure of larch, the species distribution model and maximum entropy model are conventionally used to predict the changes in the geographical distribution of larch under future climate change, but this method usually requires complex algorithms and detailed methods. parameterization of larch plantations, and cannot simultaneously predict the growth change of larch plantations under climate change conditions, therefore, we propose a collaborative estimation method for larch distribution changes and productivity under climate change conditions

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