Failure early warning analysis method for reservoir scheduling rule under influence of climate change

Abstract

The invention relates to the technical field of reservoir scheduling, and provides a failure early warning analysis method of a reservoir scheduling rule under the influence of climate change, comprising the following steps: generating a plurality of groups of simulation runoff sequences according to air temperature and rainfall prediction information, a hydrological model and a stochastic simulation method under future climate change conditions; obtaining a plurality of groups of corresponding annual benefit samples based on a current reservoir scheduling rule; classifying the reservoir dispatching annual benefits by using the hydrological annual types to obtain classified reservoir dispatching annual benefits; through parameter estimation and goodness-of-fit test, screening an optimal probability distribution function suitable for the classified reservoir dispatching annual benefit out; based on the optimal probability distribution function and the acceptable risk level, determining a classified risk early warning threshold through inverse cumulative distribution calculation; by means of a probability change point analysis method, identifying the failure early warning time of the current reservoir scheduling rule under the future climate change condition. Through the steps, the time point when the reservoir regulation rule is changed can be prompted.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of reservoir dispatching in water conservancy project management, and in particular relates to a failure warning analysis method for reservoir dispatching rules under the influence of climate change. Background technique [0002] Climate change has changed the hydrometeorological conditions on a global and regional scale, breaking the original consistency conditions and bringing great challenges to water resources management. Reservoirs with good regulation and storage functions are effective engineering measures to deal with the adverse effects of climate change in water resource management in river basins. In recent decades, there has been growing recognition of the strategic need for reservoir adaptation to climate change. At present, the mainstream research methods for reservoir adaptive regulation can be summarized as: top-down (Top-down) method and bottom-up (Bottom-up) method. The former is to give ...

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Problems solved by technology

[0003]However, there are the following problems in the existing technology: (1) Both the Top-down method and the Bottom-up method have solved the reservoir operation rules under the influence of climate change" "How to change" the difficult problem, but it cannot answer the difficult problem of "when" the reservoir dispatching rules will change under the influence of climate change

(2) At present, the Top-down method mainly assumes the time period of future climate change in a subjective way to carry out research on reservoir adaptive regulation, but this lack of scientific and reasonable explanation reduces the application value of the Top-down method

(3) Although there have been Dutch scholars based on the basic concept of the Bottom-up method, by analyzing the current reservoir operation rules under the influence of future climate change, the environmental physical quantity variation (such as: water level, flow) exceeds the acceptable threshold to determine The time period for reservoir adaptive regulation needs to be adopted, but this method is only applicable to reservoir regulation rules based on the environment (eg: flood control, ecology)

However, this scheme mostly relies on the linear development trend of future parameters. When there is a nonlinear development trend, the applicability of the rule is poor, and the scheme cannot judge the failure of the current rule.

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