Method for evaluating operation risk degree of power distribution network

Abstract

The invention discloses a method for evaluating the operation risk degree of a power distribution network, and the method comprises the following steps: obtaining the types of risk sources, and establishing a risk source factor set; establishing a risk source factor occurrence frequency evaluation set and a risk source factor influence degree evaluation set; establishing a comprehensive credibility evaluation matrix of the risk source factor occurrence frequency, calculating a risk source factor occurrence frequency credibility entropy, and determining the weight of each risk source factor occurrence frequency; establishing a comprehensive credibility evaluation matrix of the risk source factor influence degree, calculating the risk source factor influence degree credibility entropy, and determining the weight of each risk source factor influence degree; calculating the occurrence frequency measure of the risk source event and the influence measure of the dangerous source event; calculating the operation risk degree of the power distribution network; determining a confidence interval of a risk degree value, and analyzing and evaluating the risk degree for operation of the power distribution network; according to the power distribution network operation risk assessment device, subjective analysis results are objectively analyzed and processed, and the credibility of the weight is enhanced, so that the accuracy of power distribution network operation risk assessment is improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of distribution network, in particular to a method for evaluating the risk degree of distribution network operation. Background technique [0002] The safe operation of electric power and distribution network is of great significance in the development of national economy. With the development of society, the coverage of the power grid is getting wider and wider, and the operating environment of the power system is becoming more and more complex, which puts forward higher requirements for the safe operation of power and distribution networks. If the distribution network cannot maintain a safe and stable operation, it will have a major impact on the safety of the power grid, social construction and production safety, and even the development of the national economy. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to identify possible hazard sources in the operation of distribution network and then evaluate ...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

At present, when evaluating the hazard source evaluation system, the commonly used methods include probabilistic risk analysis method, multi-level gray comprehensive evaluation method, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, neural network evaluation method, etc., but each has its own shortcomings: the probabilistic risk analysis method The analysis is based on the failure probability of component-level hazard sources, and the uncertainty of hazard sources cannot be studied

Fuzzy evaluation methods and gray evaluation methods have solved the problem of describing the uncertainty of hazards to a certain extent, but because probability theory, fuzzy mathematics and gray system theory are relatively independent branches, it is difficult to integrate them into the same framework

The neural network evaluation method has shortcomings such as long training time, difficult to determine the topology of the network, and the training effect is greatly affected by the initial parameters, which makes the reliability of the evaluation results questioned.

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