Earthquake disaster risk assessment and economic loss prediction method

Abstract

The invention provides an earthquake disaster risk assessment and economic loss prediction method which comprises the steps of collecting disaster and non-disaster data sets P{i} with earthquake disaster levels greater than 5 in record history, wherein the disaster and non-disaster data sets P{i} include latitude and longitude coordinates (Xi, Yi) of earthquake happening places, earthquake magnitude Mi and earthquake intensity levels Di, the direct economic loss Li of the earthquake and the number Napi of earthquake affected population, and the method comprises other steps. According to the method, analysis modeling is carried out by combining historical seismic data, risk assessment is carried out on seismic information of a target seismic position and historical adjacent positions by adopting a probability statistics method, and direct economic loss prediction is carried out through a macroeconomic model if the target seismic position is judged to be disaster earthquakes. According to the method, the risk and loss of the target earthquake can be evaluated more accurately and effectively, and the method has high application requirements and prospects for research on countermeasures against earthquake disasters and guarantee of social public safety.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of earthquake disaster risk assessment and earthquake economic loss prediction, and in particular relates to an earthquake disaster risk assessment and economic loss prediction method. Background technique [0002] Earthquake disaster is a very common natural disaster. It has the characteristics of strong suddenness, high recurrence and huge destructive power. It is also called "the first of all disasters". Especially in densely populated places, once an earthquake disaster occurs, it is very likely to cause incalculable losses to human production and life. The catastrophic nature of an earthquake refers to whether an earthquake will cause direct economic losses or casualties. Therefore, once an earthquake disaster occurs, how to effectively assess its disaster risk and predict the reasonable economic loss of the disaster earthquake disaster is of great significance for the quantitative analysis of earthqua...

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Problems solved by technology

However, this method often ignores the catastrophic analysis of earthquakes.

However, analyzing and evaluating through the above methods will not only consume a certain amount of labor costs, but may also cause inaccurate evaluation data.

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