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Nomogram model for predicting curative effect of tumor immunotherapy and establishment method thereof

A technology of immunotherapy and predictive model, applied in the field of biomedicine, can solve the problem of unknown prognosis of important mutation genes

Active Publication Date: 2020-10-30
SUN YAT SEN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL SUN YAT SEN UNIV
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  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, the important mutated genes associated with bTMB and their prognostic role in patients undergoing immunotherapy are largely unknown

Method used

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  • Nomogram model for predicting curative effect of tumor immunotherapy and establishment method thereof
  • Nomogram model for predicting curative effect of tumor immunotherapy and establishment method thereof
  • Nomogram model for predicting curative effect of tumor immunotherapy and establishment method thereof

Examples

Experimental program
Comparison scheme
Effect test

Embodiment 1

[0038] Example 1 Construction of a prediction model for the curative effect of non-small cell lung cancer immunotherapy

[0039] 1137 patients with NSCLC receiving advanced second- or third-line therapy (full cohort), including 289 patients (POPLAR cohort) from the POPLAR phase II trial (NCT01903993) and 850 patients (OAK cohort) from the OAK phase III trial (NCT02008227) , according to the PRISMA-IPD and TRIPOD guidelines, patients were randomly assigned to atezolizumab group (POPLAR, N=144; OAK, N=425) and docetaxel group (POPLAR, N=143; OAK, N =425).

[0040] (1) Mutation gene screening for hematological tumors

[0041] The blood of all test patients was drawn, and the genetic status was detected by FDA-approved FoundationOneCDx NGS. In the whole cohort of patients, TP53 (50%), LRP1B (31%), DNMT3A (23%), SPTA1 (18%), FAT3 (18%), KEAP1 (14%), NF1 (13%), MLL2 (12%), STAG2 (12%), FAT1 (11%), TSC1 (11%), MLL3 (10%), SMARCA4 (9%) %), EPHA6 (9%), PTPRD (9%), KRAS (9%), TET2 (8...

Embodiment 2

[0055] Verification and comparison of the model of embodiment 2

[0056] (1) Verification and comparison of the Nomogram A model

[0057] The OAK cohort (HR=0.37, 95%CI: 0.28-0.49, P Image 6 A), POPLAR cohort (HR=0.37, 95% CI: 0.18-0.66, P Image 6 B) and the whole cohort (HR=0.42, 95% CI: 0.33-0.54, P Image 6 C) Patients are divided into high-risk group and low-risk group.

[0058] The predictive power of the Nomogram A model was evaluated graphically and quantitatively by the calibration curve index. The cohort (C index 0.669) and the whole cohort (C index 0.646) had good predictive power.

[0059] By drawing the ROC curve analysis, the Nomogram A model predicts the 1-year, 2-year and 3-year OS of patients in the atezolizumab group in the OAK cohort (AUC=0.694, 0.721, 0.733), POPLAR cohort (AUC=0.693, 0.726 , 0.711) and the whole cohort (AUC=0.684, 0.696, 0.714) all had good prediction performance. Using DCA curve analysis found (such as Figure 7 A), Nomogram A model sho...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a nomogram model for predicting the curative effect of tumor immunotherapy and an establishment method thereof. The method comprises the following steps: analyzing and screening patient mutant genes and clinical characteristic data to obtain factors with remarkable correlation with immunotherapy, and further constructing a corresponding nomogram model. The invention provides three nomogram models in total, is suitable for different non-small cell lung cancer patients, and assists in judging whether different patients can continue to receive treatment or select medicinechange; the model provided by the invention is simple and visual and easy to popularize and apply, can effectively help clinicians to carry out accurate individualized evaluation on Atezolizumab immunotherapy when non-small cell lung cancer patients are subjected to immunotherapy grouping and after treatment is started, brings better survival benefits to the patients, and has important value for effective application of non-small cell lung cancer immunotherapy.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of biomedicine, and relates to a nomogram model for predicting curative effect of tumor immunotherapy and a method for establishing the same. Background technique [0002] According to statistics, lung cancer is the tumor with the highest cancer incidence and mortality rate in China, and 75%-85% of them are non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). With the rapid development of immunotherapy, immune checkpoint inhibitors, especially programmed death-1 (PD-1) / programmed death-ligand-1 (PD-L1) inhibitors, have been used in the treatment of non-small cell lung cancer. A breakthrough has been made in China, which has changed the pattern of non-small cell lung cancer treatment. As a new hope for the treatment of tumors, immunotherapy has increased the 5-year survival rate of advanced non-small cell lung cancer several times. However, only 15%-20% of patients in the unselected population can benefit from it, and some patients w...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G16H10/20G16H50/20G16H50/30G16B30/00G16B20/50G16B40/00
CPCG16H10/20G16H50/20G16H50/30G16B30/00G16B20/50G16B40/00
Inventor 姚和瑞余运芳胡海李志花李岸霖区绮云陈勇健
Owner SUN YAT SEN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL SUN YAT SEN UNIV
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