Debris flow real-time dynamic risk evaluation method

Abstract

The invention discloses a debris flow real-time dynamic risk evaluation method, which comprises the following steps of S1, inputting rainfall data and rock-soil body parameters into a TRIGRS model, calculating a stability coefficient Fs of a slope under different rainfall durations, judging that Fs is less than 1 as a source region, and judging that Fs is greater than or equal to 1 as a non-sourceregion; S2, inputting Fs and other evaluation factor layers such as confluence cumulant, gradient, plane curvature and lithology into the Flow-R model at the same time, identifying distribution of potential material source regions of the debris flow slope surface under different rainfall durations, and realizing coupling of the TRIGRS and the Flow-R model; meanwhile, based on field field investigation and remote sensing interpretation, distribution of existing loose matter source areas in the debris flow channel is recognized; and S3, based on a Flow-R model, calculating debris flow energy and risk probability distribution under different rainfall durations, and performing debris flow real-time dynamic risk zoning; according to the method, the problems that debris flow source distributionis not comprehensively considered and static evaluation and research of debris flow risk are emphasized in multiple aspects in the prior art are solved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of debris flow risk assessment methods, in particular to a real-time dynamic risk assessment method for debris flows. Background technique [0002] A large number of mountain disasters such as collapses and landslides caused by earthquakes can provide rich sources for the formation of debris flows, greatly reduce the disaster-causing conditions of debris flows, and lead to a significant increase in their scale and frequency. For example, in Qingping Township, Mianzhu City, Sichuan Province, stimulated by the local heavy rain on August 13, 2010 after the Wenchuan Earthquake, debris flows occurred in 11 ditches at the same time, forming a 3.5km long, 400-500m wide, average thickness of about 5m, total Square about 600×104m 3 The accumulation area covers an area of ​​about 120×104m 2 , causing 379 houses to be damaged, more than 6,000 people suffered from different degrees of disasters, and the direct economic loss amo...

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Problems solved by technology

[0013] In order to solve the problems existing in the prior art, the present invention provides a method for assessing the dynamic risk of debris flow, which solves the problem that the previous methods did not fully consider the source distribution of debris flow and focused more on the static evaluation research of the risk of debris flow

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