Air conditioner load prediction method and device

Abstract

The invention relates to the field of time sequence analysis, and discloses an air conditioner load prediction method and device, and the method comprises the steps: collecting a plurality of samplesto form a training set, and carrying out the processing of the samples in the training set, and obtaining a data sequence; Training an ARMA (p, q) model by adopting the data sequence; According to theARMA model order p, load values in the data sequence are sequentially used as ARMA model input, and an estimated value of the load value at the next moment corresponding to the input load value is output; Training the SVR model according to the load value in the data sequence and the difference value between the load value and the corresponding estimated value; According to the ARMA model order p, taking the load value in the current time period as the input of the ARMA model, and outputting an initial predicted value of a to-be-predicted moment adjacent to the current time period; And takingthe load value in the current time period as the input of the SVR model, outputting an initial predicted value correction value, and taking the difference value between the initial predicted value and the correction value as the actual predicted value of the to-be-predicted moment.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of time series analysis, in particular to an air-conditioning load forecasting method and device. Background technique [0002] With the rapid development of urban construction, building energy consumption is also increasing rapidly. The energy consumption of air-conditioning operation accounts for a large proportion of the energy consumption of buildings, especially large public buildings. Therefore, reducing the energy consumption of air-conditioning systems has always been the focus of building energy conservation. Adopting a reasonable operation adjustment method is one of the main technical approaches to improve the energy utilization rate of the air-conditioning system, and the realization of this approach depends on whether the air-conditioning load can be accurately predicted. It can be seen that the method of predicting the air-conditioning load is particularly important. [0003] Air-conditioning load forec...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

Therefore, the traditional time series model will be limited in the regression fitting and prediction of data with the above characteristics, and the prediction results are often not ideal

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