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A risk assessment method for power grid blackout accidents

A risk and accident technology, applied in the field of risk assessment of power grid outage accidents, can solve the problems of inability to compare horizontally and lack of classification

Active Publication Date: 2021-07-16
HUIZHOU POWER SUPPLY BUREAU OF GUANGDONG POWER GRID CO LTD
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  • Summary
  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

This method cannot effectively conduct horizontal comparisons of similar accidents in different regions, and lacks a clear classification of the severity of accident consequences

Method used

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  • A risk assessment method for power grid blackout accidents
  • A risk assessment method for power grid blackout accidents
  • A risk assessment method for power grid blackout accidents

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Embodiment Construction

[0048] The drawings are for exemplary description, which is not to be understood to be limited to this patent; in order to better illustrate this embodiment, the drawings are omitted, amplified or shrinking, does not represent the size of the actual product; for the art It is understood that some well-known structures and descriptions thereof will be apparent from the drawings. The location relationship described in the drawings is for exemplary description, which is not to be understood as limiting this patent.

[0049] Such as figure 1 As shown, a hazard assessment method for a power outage accident, including the following steps:

[0050] S1: sample data for extracting load loss;

[0051] S2: Select the appropriate extreme value distribution model;

[0052] S3: The generalized extreme value distribution model is estimated using a particle group generator based on a valid group, and it is a widely used value distribution model.

[0053] S4: Analysis of the probability of acciden...

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Abstract

The invention relates to the technical field of power system risk assessment, and more specifically, to a method for assessing the risk of power grid blackout accidents. It includes the following steps: S1: extracting sample data of load loss; S2: selecting a suitable extreme value distribution model; S3: using the effective population-based particle swarm genetic algorithm to estimate the parameters of the generalized extreme value distribution model, and obtain the generalized extreme value distribution model ; S4: Analyze the accident probability of load loss; S5: Establish evaluation index, calculate the weight vector by using AHP; S6: Calculate the risk index of load loss. This method can effectively compare similar accidents in different regions horizontally, and establish a clear evaluation index for the severity level of accident consequences.

Description

Technical field [0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of power system risk assessment, and more particularly to a hazard assessment method of a power grid power outage. Background technique [0002] The extreme theory is a study of the statistical analysis theory that generates a great influence of accidents. At present, extreme theory has been gradually applied to power system analysis. Including the following aspects: Calculation of the regional grid coverage period by using different extreme value distribution methods; based on extreme model, analyze the probability of failure under different periods of transmission lines. Once the power grid load loss accident occurs, not only has a major impact on power supply companies and society, but also a wide range of power-off accidents from power law distribution, similarity with extreme theory. Therefore, the extreme theory can be applied to load loss assessment, scientifically analyzing the seriousness of load...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q10/06G06Q50/06G06N3/12
CPCG06N3/126G06Q10/04G06Q10/0639G06Q50/06
Inventor 陈涛威朱凌张素明赖育庭徐大勇陈峰李鸿文张琴彭东明陈伟鑫
Owner HUIZHOU POWER SUPPLY BUREAU OF GUANGDONG POWER GRID CO LTD
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