Construction method of electricity market climate index, counting external economic factors

Abstract

The invention discloses a construction method of electricity market climate index, counting external economic factors. The construction method of electricity market climate index, counting external economic factors includes the steps: 1) collecting and arranging the electricity consumption and various economic data in the external environment, and screening the electricity consumption and variouseconomic data; 2) performing seasonal adjustment and standardization on each screened data sequence; 3) performing principal component analysis on the electricity consumption and each economic index,and constructing the preliminary market climate index; 4) performing a stationary test or co-integration test on the electricity consumption and each economic index, and performing Granger cause and effect relation examination; and 5) based on the Granger cause and effect relation examination result, correcting the coefficient of each economic index in the market economy indexes, and constructingthe final electricity market climate index. Based on the principal component analysis and co-integration theory, the construction method of electricity market climate index, counting external economicfactors provides an integrated construction method of electricity market climate index, and has important reference meaning for the influence degree of each economic factors on the electricity consumption and the development trend of the overall electricity market.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of impact evaluation on the electricity consumption side, in particular to a method for constructing an electricity market prosperity index taking into account external economic factors. Background technique [0002] Business climate analysis is widely used in the economic field, but it is not very mature in the field of electricity consumption. Electricity is the leading foundation for the development of the national economy. The development speed of electricity consumption in various industries is directly related to the development level of the national economy. Ensuring a stable and sufficient supply of electricity is of great significance to economic development and the normal life of the people. Excavating external environmental economic factors The development law of electricity consumption under the influence will help to guide the operation planning of the power system, comply with periodic fluctuations, and ...

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] The technical problem to be solved by the present invention is that the existing evaluation methods are simple and single, and it is difficult to grasp the complex changing law of power demand. Therefore, a construction method of the electricity market prosperity index considering external economic factors is provided.

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