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Discrete calculating method for meeting probability on continuous path

A technology of encounter probability and calculation method, which is applied in the field of personnel search, can solve problems such as inability to give accurate results, continuous integral measurement method cannot be calculated, etc., and achieve the effect of avoiding calculation problems, avoiding integration or differentiation, and reducing complexity

Inactive Publication Date: 2018-02-13
WUHAN UNIV OF TECH
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  • Summary
  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

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Problems solved by technology

[0040] The technical problem to be solved by the present invention is to address the shortcomings of the existing methods in calculating the probability of encounters on the continuous path: the traditional discrete encounter probability algorithm cannot give accurate results, and the continuous integral measurement method cannot calculate the integral of complex functions

Method used

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  • Discrete calculating method for meeting probability on continuous path
  • Discrete calculating method for meeting probability on continuous path
  • Discrete calculating method for meeting probability on continuous path

Examples

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Effect test

Embodiment 1

[0103] Assuming that the length of the path L between the searcher F and the lost person G is l=10, if the last location of the lost person is unknown, it can be reasonably assumed that the probability distribution of G on L is uniformly distributed, and p g (y) is a uniform distribution, and the searcher F searches randomly on the path L, so let p f (x) is also uniformly distributed, that is The maximum encounter distance d meet is 2, then the encounter probability can be calculated according to formula (2):

[0104] Step 1: Discretize the path L into n small segments, correspondingly divide p f (x), p g (y) discretized into n distributions in L i Probability value on After normalization, we get Calculate segment length

[0105] Step 2: Encounter Event E meet ={(x i ,y j )||y j -x i |≤2}, if F is located in L i For the sub-area, it is considered that the visible range of F covers at most 2m+1 small segments.

[0106] Step 3: According to the formula Calcu...

Embodiment 2

[0132] Let the length of the path L between the seeker F and the lost person G be l=10, and the maximum encounter distance d meet is 2, it is determined that the last position of the lost person is located at the midpoint of the path L and is free to move on the path L. It can be reasonably assumed that the probability density function of the lost person G on L is a normal distribution, and the midpoint of the path L is the coordinate origin, then If the searcher F searches randomly on the path L, it can be reasonably assumed that the probability density function of F on L is uniformly distributed, that is, p f (x)=0.1. For the above scenario problems that cannot be solved by the integral measurement method, the discretization calculation method is adopted as follows:

[0133] Step 1: Discretize the path L into n small segments, correspondingly divide p f (x), p g (y) discretized into n distributions in L i The probability value p on f (c 1 ), p f (c 2 ),...,p f (c ...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a discretization calculation method of encounter probability on a continuous path, which is used to calculate the encounter probability of a searcher F and a lost person G, comprising the following steps: Step 1: Preparatory work: discretization of the path, determining the length l of the path and the number of discrete units n; step 2: discretize the continuous probability; step 3: analyze the encounter event Emeet according to the maximum encounter distance; step 4: use the formula to calculate the encounter probability pmeet between the searcher F and the lost person G. The invention discretizes the complex continuous probability distribution of the moving object into a single probability value, transforms the integration problem of the encounter probability into the summation problem of the discrete probability, and is applicable to the calculation of the encounter probability in the continuous path.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method for calculating the encounter probability, in particular to a discretized measurement method for the possibility of encounters between a searcher and a lost person on a continuous path, which can be applied to the field of personnel search. Background technique [0002] Personnel searches happen from time to time. For example, search and rescue at sea; the escape of criminals and the police's pursuit of criminals in the process of solving crimes; the search for lost children, etc. Among many event cases, there is a classic case: the lost person walks randomly on the path L, if the last location of the lost person is known, then how likely is the searcher to find the lost person on the path L; if the lost person is not known What is the probability that the seeker will find the lost person on the path L? Solving this problem can provide a scientific, effective and reasonable method for personnel search. [0003] The ...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04
CPCG06Q10/047
Inventor 尹章才吴杨金章昊男刘辉
Owner WUHAN UNIV OF TECH
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