Calculating method of imprecise probability of steady-state availability of electric power system

Abstract

The invention discloses a calculating method of the imprecise probability of the steady-state availability of an electric power system. In the prior art, the probability interval of the steady-state availability of the electric power system is deducted according to interval reliability indexes of an element by employing an interval operation or optimization algorithm, the calculating amount is large, and the engineering realization is very difficult. According to the method, imprecise probability deduction of condition distributions of the state staying time of the system is performed by employing a gamma exponential model so that interval values expected by the state staying time conditions can be obtained; and by employing the Markov property of the electric power system, namely the conditional independence of the state staying time of the electric power system, upper and lower bound expressions of the intervals of the steady-state availability of the electric power system are deducted by directly employing sample data of the system without calculating the imprecise reliability indexes of the element.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of electric power planning and reliability, in particular to an inaccurate probability inference technology applied to the steady-state availability of electric power systems. Background technique [0002] Power system reliability assessment and prediction is essentially to analyze and predict various uncertain factors in the operation process of the power system. Uncertainty can be divided into two types: objective uncertainty (accuracy uncertainty) and Epistemic uncertainty (imprecise uncertainty). The research on the objective uncertainty of the power system has been relatively mature, but there is cognitive uncertainty in the power system: in recent years, with new energy and new technologies connected to the power grid, new components that have just been put into operation lack or may not fail Statistical data, at this time the traditional reliability evaluation based on the law of large numbers is obviously no ...

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Problems solved by technology

However, as the scale of the power system becomes larger, the structure becomes more and more complex, and more and more components are included, the interval calculation or optimization algorithm is used to infer the probability interval of the steady-state availability of the power system according to the interval reliability index of the components. The amount of calculation is large, and the engineering implementation is very difficult

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