Method for predicting post forwarding amount in social network based on Kalman filter
A technology of social network and forecasting method, which is applied in the field of forecasting post forwarding volume, and can solve the problem of low forecasting accuracy
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[0049] The technical solution of the present invention will be described in further detail below in conjunction with accompanying drawings and examples of implementation:
[0050] In the first step, we assume that the influence of the post at time t-1 is 0.8, and the corresponding estimation error P′ t-1 =3, then the system state at time t and the predicted value of the error are unchanged, and assuming that the uncertainty q=4 in the forecasting process, then the total deviation in the forecasting process is 5.
[0051] In the second step, from the cascaded forwarded data, it can be obtained that the forwarding time at time t and time t-1 are 84988s and 84993s respectively, and the number of followers of the forwarding user is 77. Therefore, the forwarding strength at time t is obtained Also assume that the deviation of this value is r=4.
[0052] In the third step, there are two values for estimating the system state at time t, which are 0.8 and 0.977, and the actual ...
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