Ensemble forecasting method and device

Abstract

The invention provides an ensemble forecasting method and device. The method includes: acquiring an initial forecasting interval; dividing the interval, obtaining level characteristic values; determining an interval; and determining a forecasting result. According to the method, high forecasting members in a forecasting ensemble are firstly determined through the level characteristic values, then the forecasting result of ensemble interval values is obtained, the forecasting ability of ensemble forecasting for high-impact weather is improved, and the forecasting result is also changed from single-value forecasting to interval-value forecasting; and the method has certain reference significance for all of flood control management and application of basin flood control and disaster reduction institutions and related research of rainfall forecasting.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of weather forecasting, in particular to an ensemble forecasting method and an ensemble forecasting device. Background technique [0002] With the advancement of high-precision satellites, radar and other observation and communication information processing technologies, the research on rainfall forecasting technology has made great progress; great breakthroughs have been made in both time and space. The principle of ensemble forecasting is clear, the forecast period ranges from short to long, there are many forecast models, and the forecast products are quite rich. With the continuous improvement of data processing and model accuracy, its application range is continuously expanding. [0003] A large number of research results show that the accuracy of traditional ensemble forecasts for no-rain forecasts is relatively high, and the rate of false and missed reports for light rain is also very low, while the a...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

To a certain extent, the average value forecast can filter out some random information in the forecast and make up for the oscillation caused by some special values, but this also results in the homogenization of large-scale rainfall and the loss of the ability to forecast large-scale rainfall. However, heavy rainfall often causes flood disasters. This lack of ability to forecast extreme heavy rainfall limits the further application and development of ensemble rainfall forecasting.

Images