Full path typhoon hazard analysis method based on statistical dynamics

Abstract

The invention provides a full path typhoon hazard analysis method based on statistical dynamics. A generating model is used to generate annual occurrence times and occurrence positions of typhoon, and a one-dimensional kernel probability density function and a three-dimensional kernel probability density function are used to estimate the annual occurrence times of the typhoon and the probability density of the generating positions of the typhoon on the ocean, and in addition, a Monte Carlo method is used to simulate the annual occurrence times and the occurrence positions of the typhoon. The simulated annual occurrence times and the simulated occurrence positions of the typhoon are substituted into the mobility model of the statistical dynamics to simulate the positions of the typhoon in every six hours after the generating of the typhoon, and at the same time, an intensity model is used to estimate the intensity of the typhoon in every six hours. The generating positions of the typhoons simulated by the generating model of the kernel density probability function are not limited by historical generating positions, and a defect of less typhoon generating point samples caused by an empirical full path model directly using the historical generating positions is overcome.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a full-path typhoon risk analysis method, in particular to a full-path typhoon risk analysis method based on statistical dynamics. Background technique [0002] The existing typhoon risk analysis models mainly include single point probability model and empirical full path model. [0003] 1. Single-point probability model, delineate a circular area for the research point to determine the typhoon samples that affect the research point, determine the annual occurrence number of typhoons in the region through the Poisson distribution, and calculate the moving speed and movement of the typhoon samples in the region Probabilistic statistics are carried out on characteristics such as direction, central pressure difference, maximum wind speed radius, and the minimum distance between the typhoon center and the research point. A large number of typhoon samples are simulated by the Monte Carlo method, and combined with the typhoon wind fi...

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Problems solved by technology

[0006] 1. The single-point probability model is only suitable for typhoon risk analysis in small areas with abundant typhoon samples. For typhoon risk analysis in large-scale areas (such as multiple coastal cities, railways, highways, power grid systems, etc.), it is necessary to carry out regional Segmented statistics will result in cumbersome calculations, and there will be large deviations in areas with insufficient typhoon samples

This model cannot be used to study typhoon risk analysis under future climate change

[0007] 2. The initial generation points of the empiric whole-track model simulation are limited, and only the historical typhoon track information is considered. This model performs well in areas with rich typhoon samples, but it performs poorly in areas with scarce historical typhoon records, and cannot be used to study future Typhoon Hazard Analysis under Climate Change

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