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Secondary equipment risk assessment method

A technology for secondary equipment and risk assessment, applied in the direction of resources, instruments, measuring electricity, etc., can solve problems such as failure of timely risk control, maintenance or early warning of secondary equipment in the power system, and delay in risk management of secondary equipment. Reliable, well-considered effects

Inactive Publication Date: 2017-04-26
GUIZHOU UNIV
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Problems solved by technology

[0004] At present, the defects, obstacles and risk management of secondary equipment only stay in the superficial analysis of events, and these analyzes are mainly subjective and qualitative
What risks exist in secondary equipment, how serious are the risks, how to evaluate, and how to compare are mostly determined by the subjective judgment of maintenance personnel, which has a great impact on the effective decision-making of secondary equipment risk pre-control
This will not only prevent the secondary equipment of the power system from receiving timely risk control maintenance or early warning, but may even cause serious accidents due to improper risk control measures

Method used

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Embodiment Construction

[0028] In order to make the purpose, technical solution and advantages of the present invention clearer, the present invention will be further described in detail below in conjunction with examples.

[0029] Embodiments of the invention: figure 1 It is a flow chart of the steps of the secondary equipment risk assessment method of the present invention. The establishment of the second-order hidden Markov model in the secondary equipment risk assessment method includes the following steps:

[0030] Step S1: According to the historical operation data of each secondary equipment in the power system, the state q and the observation output sequence O of the system at time t-1 and time t are obtained;

[0031] Step S2: According to step S1, the number N of the system state q and the length M of the observation output sequence O can be obtained respectively. Due to the consideration of the time t, the obtained state transition matrix A and the dimension of the observation value outpu...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a secondary equipment risk assessment method. In the method, based on a first-order hidden Markov model, a second-order hidden Markov model is provided and the second-order hidden Markov model is applied to a reliability assessment of secondary equipment, historical running state research to the secondary equipment is increased and considered factors are comprehensive. A method of adopting the second-order hidden Markov model is characterized by firstly, carrying out fault probability calculating on single secondary equipment; and then simulating a failure rate of an investment system of the equipment through Monte Carlo so that an acquired failure rate is reliable. After the secondary equipment is classified, a risk index corresponding to each type of secondary equipment is determined. Therefore, the established risk index accords with characteristics of different types of secondary equipment, and a risk assessment result possesses objectivity and accords with an actual power grid operation condition.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of power system secondary equipment maintenance, in particular to a secondary equipment risk assessment method. Background technique [0002] With the rapid development of the power industry, the number of power secondary equipment is gradually increasing, and the scale is also expanding, and its operation, maintenance and management are increasingly valued by enterprises. Secondary equipment risk assessment is to comprehensively consider the risks of equipment safety, economy and social impact, determine the risk level of secondary equipment, and provide a basis for decision-making in production management such as equipment operation, maintenance, overhaul, testing, and technical transformation. [0003] IEEE Standard 100-1992 defines risk as "the measurement of the probability (ie, failure rate) and severity of unexpected results, usually in the form of the product of probability and result." For secondary...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/06G06Q50/06G01R31/00
CPCG06Q10/0635G01R31/003G06Q50/06
Inventor 余辛刘敏李印刘永军印然
Owner GUIZHOU UNIV
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