Non-runoff small hydropower station short term power weighted prediction method

Abstract

The invention discloses a non-runoff small hydropower station short term power weighted prediction method which comprises a step of collecting the data information of a regional non-runoff small hydropower station, a step of calculating the first short term power prediction value of an ith non-runoff small hydropower station at a jth time, a step of calculating the first short term power prediction value of the regional non-runoff small hydropower station at the jth time, a step of obtaining the second short term power prediction value of the regional non-runoff small hydropower station at the jth time by using a support vector machine according to the hitorical data of the ith non-runoff small hydropower station, meteorological data and peak and valley prices of a regional power grid, a step of determining a weight coefficient, and a step of calculating the short term power prediction value Pnrj of the regional non-runoff small hydropower station at the jth time of a prediction day. The technical problem that a direct prediction method is mainly used by the non-runoff small hydropower station short term power prediction in the prior art, the prediction method depends on the subjective experience, knowledge and other comprehensive judgment ability of an operator, and a prediction error is large is solved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of power prediction of small hydropower, and in particular relates to a weighted short-term power prediction method of non-runoff small hydropower. Background technique [0002] With the increasingly serious problems of environmental pollution and energy shortage, small hydropower, as a clean and green renewable alternative energy source, is different from large and medium-sized hydropower. It is mainly distributed in remote mountainous areas and is an important power source component in rural areas. It has decentralized development , On-site networking, on-site power supply, low construction and power generation costs, short construction period, fast returns, etc., have irreplaceable advantages. Therefore, they have developed rapidly with the support of national and local policies, and have solved the problems in some areas. power shortage situation. At the same time, the development of small hydropower ha...

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Problems solved by technology

[0005] The technical problem to be solved by the present invention is to provide a weighted short-term power prediction method for non-runoff small hydropower, to solve the problem that the direct prediction method is mainly used in the short-term power prediction of non-runoff small hydropower in the prior art, and the existing need to rely on operating personnel Technical problems such as subjective experience, knowledge and other comprehensive judgment ability, large prediction error