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Air pollutant concentration forecast method and system thereof

A technology of air pollutants and concentration, which is applied in the field of environmental engineering, can solve the problems of low accuracy and low accuracy of air pollutant concentration forecasting, and achieve the effect of high forecasting accuracy and improved accuracy

Active Publication Date: 2017-03-08
INST OF REMOTE SENSING & DIGITAL EARTH CHINESE ACADEMY OF SCI
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Problems solved by technology

[0005] The purpose of the present invention is to overcome the above-mentioned deficiencies existing in the prior art, and provide a kind of air pollutant concentration forecasting method and system, to solve the air pollutant concentration forecasting accuracy is low, the accuracy in extreme air pollutant concentration forecasting is especially Low problem

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  • Air pollutant concentration forecast method and system thereof
  • Air pollutant concentration forecast method and system thereof
  • Air pollutant concentration forecast method and system thereof

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Embodiment

[0067] Using the hourly PM2.5 average concentration data from 12 air quality monitoring stations in urban areas of Beijing from January 1, 2014 to May 28, 2016, the air pollutant concentration forecast method provided by the present invention is used to carry out PM2.5 hourly average Concentration Data Forecast. That is, the forecast delay r is one hour; in each historical concentration sample, the time interval between adjacent time series data is one hour.

[0068] After preprocessing, the historical data set contains 20196 PM2.5 hourly average concentration records. By randomly selecting 60% of the data as the training set, 20% of the data as the validation set, and the remaining 20% ​​of the data as the test set.

[0069] In the process of undetermined model training and undetermined model parameter optimization, the set of parameters to be selected is shown in Table 1.

[0070] Table 1 Undetermined model parameters for air quality forecasting

[0071]

[0072] After...

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Abstract

The invention discloses an air pollutant concentration forecast method. The method comprises the following steps of determining a plurality of undetermined models and setting that a number of nodes of an output layer of each undetermined model is m; from historical concentration data, extracting a training data set and a verification data set; training each undetermined model till that the undetermined model is converged; determining the undetermined model corresponding to a minimum integration error to be a forecast model; and inputting a forecast data set into the forecast model, and taking an output result of the forecast model as a forecast result of forecast time delay r. By using the air pollutant concentration forecast method, based on a STDL model, forecast of air pollutant concentration is performed; implicit space-time correlation in air pollutant concentration data can be extracted; forecast data of a plurality of monitoring sites can be synchronously acquired and forecast precision is high; and precision of extreme air pollutant concentration forecast can be improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of environmental engineering, in particular to a method and system for forecasting the concentration of air pollutants. Background technique [0002] In recent years, with the rapid development of the national economy, the acceleration of urbanization and the expansion of industrial scale, the problem of air pollution has become increasingly serious, which has attracted widespread attention worldwide. Air pollution with fine particulate matter PM2.5 as the primary pollutant has become increasingly prominent, posing a greater threat to public health. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out air quality forecasting, better reflect the changing trend of air pollution, and provide rapid and comprehensive environmental quality information to provide decision support for environmental management and avoiding serious air pollution accidents. [0003] At present, air quality forecasting usually uses numerical foreca...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/26
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/26
Inventor 李祥彭玲肖莎胡媛李高盛
Owner INST OF REMOTE SENSING & DIGITAL EARTH CHINESE ACADEMY OF SCI
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