Power utilization demand analysis prediction method taking business-expansion installation data into consideration

Abstract

The invention discloses a power utilization demand analysis prediction method taking business-expansion installation data into consideration. The method comprises that the amount of newly added users and capacities of newly added power utilization equipment are determined; the growth rate and the comparative growth rate of capacity are calculated; an S-type growth curve is used to construct power utilization trend after business-expansion installation, a principle component analysis method is used to a business-expansion power utilization growth curve, and the curve is interpreted stage by stage by taking the instant growth rate as a basic value and an inflection point as an identification basis; the power utilization amount and business-expansion installation are converted, a Census X12 algorithm is used to decompose an interpretation variable and a dependent variable seasonally, and an original variable is decomposed into a trend circulation item (TC), a seasonal factor (SF) and a random item (IR); and the correlation between variable trend items is analyzed, linear regression is carried out, and a prediction value of power utilization amount is confirmed after the seasonal factors are considered. The relation between the quantified capacity release rule and the installation capacity / power utilization amount can be obtained, and the power utilization amount can be predetermined accurately.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method for analyzing and predicting electricity demand considering the data of business expansion report and installation. Background technique [0002] Due to the influence of national policies, production costs, sales conditions, market prospects, and business expansion trends, it is impossible to make accurate predictions and judgments on the new capacity, electricity, and load of business expansion. Since business expansion and new installations take a long time, it is impossible to accurately grasp the release law of new capacity, the law of power growth point and when the power will reach the normal level, the impact of capacity growth on the province's power, etc. That is to say, the growth of the actual electricity sales of power grid companies often lags behind the growth of business expansion and installation, and the newly added installation capacity will not be 100% converted into the growth of electricity sales. ...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0003] However, at present, the main focus of relevant research on industry expansion and reporting is the formulation of policies and the improvement of management systems. There are few in-depth studies on measurement technology, mathematical models, and algorithm exercises, such as load forecasting methods based on S-curves. Based on the business expansion information, the large power consumers in the region can simply and intuitively improve the accuracy of load forecasting in the next 3-5 years

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