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Flood combined probability analysis method and application thereof based on Copula

A technology of joint probability and analysis method, which is applied in the field of joint probability analysis of tidal flood based on Copula function, which can solve the problems of not considering rainfall duration and unable to analyze tidal flood completely.

Active Publication Date: 2016-12-07
CHINA INST OF WATER RESOURCES & HYDROPOWER RES
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Problems solved by technology

First of all, the current analysis method only analyzes the upstream water level and downstream tidal level, without considering factors such as rainfall duration, and the relationship between tidal and flood encounters cannot be completely analyzed only through the two-dimensional Copula function; secondly, the current analysis method often It is to first select the marginal distribution function with better simulation, and conduct joint probability analysis through the marginal distribution with better performance of the two series. In fact, the good performance of the marginal distribution does not necessarily determine the optimality of the joint distribution.

Method used

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  • Flood combined probability analysis method and application thereof based on Copula
  • Flood combined probability analysis method and application thereof based on Copula
  • Flood combined probability analysis method and application thereof based on Copula

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Embodiment Construction

[0024] Below in conjunction with embodiment, the present invention will be further described:

[0025] Step 1. Select and analyze the representative tide level station and rainfall station of the river section. The tide station should be located at the estuary of the river section and the tide level data is complete; according to the size of the downstream basin, select the representative water and rainfall station in the river basin. The length of the rainfall series of different rainfall stations should be basically the same;

[0026] Step 2. Carry out consistency correction to the tide level data;

[0027] Step 3. For each selected rainfall station, use the rainfall intensity method to divide the continuous rainfall time series into rainfall events. For example, according to the standard of "rainfall intensity is less than 0.1mm / h, and the duration exceeds 10h", the rainfall data Segmentation, which divides the rainfall time series into different rainfall events, and then ...

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Abstract

The invention relates to a flood combined probability analysis method and an application thereof based on Copula. The flood analysis method is aimed at providing a flood control construction basis for tidal river reach, and mirroring functions of affecting overflowing of flood facilities and characteristic quantity of regulation and storage capacity through creation of a joint probability distribution function about sea level, rainfall peak and subrainfall so that reliable basis is provided for anti-flood construction.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of joint probability analysis, in particular to a tidal flood joint probability analysis method based on Copula function and its application. Background technique [0002] The section at the estuary of the river channel is called the tidal section, and the so-called tidal section refers to the section where the downstream outlet of the section is supported by the tide, and the flow and water level are affected by the tide. The upper reaches of the basin are greatly affected by the rainfall in the basin, and the lower reaches not only bear and discharge the upstream flood into the river, but also are affected by the support of the tide level. As a result, the flood disasters suffered by the basin are not only related to the internal rainstorm, but also related to the tide level encountered during the rainstorm. closely related. Therefore, in order to reasonably analyze the flood risk of the watershed and understand th...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F17/50
CPCG06F30/20Y02A10/40
Inventor 刘佳李传哲王洋于福亮田济扬李义豪史婉丽谭亚男
Owner CHINA INST OF WATER RESOURCES & HYDROPOWER RES
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