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A Copula Function-Based Tidal and Flood Joint Probability Analysis Method and Its Application

A technology of joint probability and analysis method, which is applied in the field of joint probability analysis of tidal flood based on Copula function, which can solve the problems of not considering rainfall duration and unable to analyze tidal flood completely.

Active Publication Date: 2017-11-10
CHINA INST OF WATER RESOURCES & HYDROPOWER RES
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Problems solved by technology

First of all, the current analysis method only analyzes the upstream water level and downstream tidal level, without considering factors such as rainfall duration, and the relationship between tidal and flood encounters cannot be completely analyzed only through the two-dimensional Copula function; secondly, the current analysis method often It is to first select the marginal distribution function with better simulation, and conduct joint probability analysis through the marginal distribution with better performance of the two series. In fact, the good performance of the marginal distribution does not necessarily determine the optimality of the joint distribution.

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  • A Copula Function-Based Tidal and Flood Joint Probability Analysis Method and Its Application
  • A Copula Function-Based Tidal and Flood Joint Probability Analysis Method and Its Application
  • A Copula Function-Based Tidal and Flood Joint Probability Analysis Method and Its Application

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Embodiment Construction

[0024] In the following, the present invention will be further described in conjunction with the embodiments:

[0025] Step 1. Select and analyze the representative tide level station and rainfall station of the river section. The tide level station should be located at the estuary of the river section and the tide level data should be complete; according to the size of the downstream basin, select the representative water rainfall station in the appropriate watershed, and the rainfall series length of different rainfall stations should be basically the same;

[0026] Step 2. Make consistent corrections to tide level data;

[0027] Step 3. For each selected rainfall station, use the rainfall intensity method to divide the continuous rainfall time series into rainfall events. For example, perform rainfall data according to the standard of "rainfall intensity less than 0.1mm / h and duration exceeding 10h" Segmentation: divide the rainfall time series into different rainfall events, and...

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Abstract

The invention relates to a flood combined probability analysis method and an application thereof based on Copula. The flood analysis method is aimed at providing a flood control construction basis for tidal river reach, and mirroring functions of affecting overflowing of flood facilities and characteristic quantity of regulation and storage capacity through creation of a joint probability distribution function about sea level, rainfall peak and subrainfall so that reliable basis is provided for anti-flood construction.

Description

Technical field [0001] The present invention relates to the field of joint probability analysis, in particular to a tidal flood joint probability analysis method based on Copula function and its application. Background technique [0002] The reach of the river channel into the sea is called the tidal reach. The so-called tidal reach refers to the reach at the downstream exit of the reach that is supported by the tide, and the flow and water level are affected by the tide. The upper reaches of the basin are greatly affected by rainfall in the basin. The lower reaches not only discharge the upstream flood into the river, but are also affected by the topping of the tide level. The flood disaster in the basin is not only related to the internal heavy rain, but also to the tide level encountered during the heavy rain. closely related. Therefore, in order to reasonably analyze the flood risk of the river basin and understand the probabilistic risk law of rainstorm and tide level encou...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F17/50
CPCG06F30/20Y02A10/40
Inventor 刘佳李传哲王洋于福亮田济扬李义豪史婉丽谭亚男
Owner CHINA INST OF WATER RESOURCES & HYDROPOWER RES
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