Method for dynamic prediction of air-conditioning loads based on multi-factor chaos support vector machine

Abstract

The invention discloses a method for dynamic prediction of air-conditioning loads based on a multi-factor chaos support vector machine. For a cool storage air-conditioning system, a combined cooling heating and power supply air-conditioning system, a solar air-conditioning system and other complicated building energy systems, accurate short-term prediction is conducted on dynamic air-conditioning loads based on a support vector machine technology by conducting phase-space reconstruction on historical load sequences and considering the internal factors of the air-conditioning loads. According to the technical scheme, the method comprises the steps that firstly, a training sample set taking outdoor temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation intensity and other meteorological factors and chilled water temperature as principal elements is established; phase-space reconstruction parameters are optimized by adopting an artificial intelligence method, and phase-space reconstruction is conducted on load sequences after chaos characteristic identification; model related parameters of a load model of the multi-factor chaos support vector machine are found by adopting a grid search method; load model of the multi-factor chaos support vector machine is established, and prediction is performed. By adopting the method, the prediction accuracy of dynamic air-conditioning loads is improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a dynamic forecasting method of air-conditioning load, specifically, it is aimed at complex building energy systems such as cold storage, triple power supply, and solar air-conditioning, based on the time-series phase space reconstruction of air-conditioning load and support vector machine technology, and considering the formation of air-conditioning load Internal factors, including weather, chilled water temperature and other influencing factors, to realize a new method for short-term forecasting of air-conditioning dynamic load. Background technique [0002] Air-conditioning operating load forecasting is the basis and precondition for energy-saving operation and optimal control of air-conditioning systems. Accurate air-conditioning operation load forecasting is of great significance for improving the level of building operation management and ensuring the realization of strategic goals of building energy conservation. The ex...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

The above air-conditioning load forecasting methods all ignore or do not fully consider the internal causes affecting the air-conditioning load

At the same time, most of the current air-conditioning load forecasting methods use a trial calculation method for the selection of input parameters, which lacks scientific guidance

Therefore, in the process of air-conditioning load, problems such as low prediction accuracy and heavy prediction workload often occur, which lead to disadvantages such as poor prediction effect and inconvenient use in practical applications.

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