Novel modeling method for extracting daily net active power random fuzzy characteristics of high wind power penetration busbars

Abstract

The invention belongs to the technical field of modeling of daily net active powers of high wind power penetration busbars, and relates to a novel modeling method of considering that the net active power of each busbar has dual uncertainty characteristics of randomness and fuzziness. The method comprises the following steps: selecting daily net active power data of the busbars in a specific region over the years, fitting the probability distribution of the net active power data within each time period divided according to the requirements when the confidence ratio is 0.05 by a MATLAB probability density curve, and determining a confidence interval and a membership function model of the parameter fluctuation range; defining the net active powers as random fuzzy variables, obtaining an opportunity measurement function of the net active powers and building a random fuzzy uncertainty model; and finally providing the process and step of simulation generation of simulated daily net active powers of the busbars through a random fuzzy simulation technology and an inverse transform method. The novel modeling method can relatively comprehensively describe multiple uncertainty characteristics of the daily net active powers of the high wind power penetration busbars, and provides a corresponding guiding basis for electricity generation scheduling and dispatching of a high wind power-integrated power system in the future.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of modeling the daily net active power of a high wind power penetrating busbar, and proposes a new modeling method for extracting random fuzzy features of the daily net active power of a high wind power penetrating busbar. Background technique [0002] Extracting the uncertain characteristics of the net active power, which is the difference between the active load and the wind power active output at the same moment of the day when the wind farm is connected to the substation bus, is of great significance for system operation arrangement and safety check. With the increasing number of new energy sources such as wind power connected to substations and the capacity continues to increase, the method of eliminating random energy such as small-capacity wind power in traditional bus load forecasting is difficult to meet the actual needs. The concept of net active power is proposed for this, that is, wind power The ...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

Moreover, randomness and fuzziness coexist in the uncertain characteristics of net active power. Traditional net active power uncertainty models are generally described by random variables or fuzzy variables. However, net active power is affected by seasons, temperatures, and user electricity consumption. , at the same time limited by the limited net active power statistical data, it is difficult to obtain clear probability distribution parameters in the cognitive sense, that is, it is fuzzy. Therefore, it is more in line with the objective reality to describe the net active power with random fuzzy variables, while random variables and fuzzy variables are essentially random fuzzy special case of variable

In the existing technology, there are relatively few studies on the theory and modeling analysis of net active power uncertainty that comprehensively considers randomness and ambiguity. This theoretical system still needs to be continuously supplemented and improved.

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