Flood forecasting method under influences of human activities

Abstract

The invention discloses a flood forecasting method under influences of human activities. A conventional flood forecasting method is improved from three links: history data analysis, human activity influence analysis and standard determination, and forecasting model parameter calibration which influence flood forecasting work precision, and the purpose of improving the flood forecasting work precision is achieved. The influences of human activities are quantificationally assessed and analyzed on the base of qualitative analysis, and different strategies and methods are adopted for different influencing factors, so that the practicalness is relatively high, and the method system is complete, etc.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a flood forecasting method under the influence of human activities. Background technique [0002] Flood forecasting is an applied science and technology that reveals and predicts the occurrence and change of floods based on previous and current hydrological and meteorological information. It is one of the important contents of non-engineering measures for flood control. Protection, water conservancy project construction and operation management, and industrial and agricultural safety production services. The currently widely used flood forecasting method is a physical conceptual model, which simulates the formation and evolution of runoff based on the measured rainfall and evaporation data and the underlying surface of the basin. The flow process calculated by the model is the inflow process under natural conditions. Regardless of the impact of man-made stagnation in the watershed, in practical applications, with the continuou...

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Problems solved by technology

The currently widely used flood forecasting method is a physical conceptual model, which simulates the formation and evolution of runoff based on the measured rainfall and evaporation data and the underlying surface of the basin. The flow process calculated by the model is the inflow process under natural conditions. Regardless of the impact of man-made stagnation in the watershed, in practical applications, with the continuous development of the economic level in the watershed, the impact of human activities on the natural watershed is increasing day by day, and it is becoming more and more difficult to obtain better operation forecast accuracy by using traditional methods. The safety of the reservoir and the need for prosperity have caused serious impacts

[0003] Human activities mainly affect the accuracy of flood forecasting from three aspects. On the one hand, the impact of engineering measures in the basin. With the continuous improvement of the development and utilization of water resources in the basin, various large, medium and small reservoirs continue to store water and generate electricity. At the same time, some small dams are constantly being built and put into operation. The impact of a single dam is limited, but the number of dams is large, and the time of storage and discharge is different, which will have an important impact on the natural production and confluence of the basin; on the other hand, the conditions of the underlying surface change. Due to the continuous improvement of the development and utilization of watersheds and the continuous improvement of urbanization levels, many changes have taken place in the original watershed evaporation and flow generation and confluence laws. The continuous increase, withdrawal, relocation, and lack of historical data caused by station failure will also affect the fitting effect of flood forecasting schemes, thereby further affecting the accuracy of flood forecasting operations.

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