Real-time bus arrival time prediction method based on operation data of former buses in multiple lines

Abstract

The present invention belongs to the field of urban intelligent public traffic information processing technology and specifically discloses a real-time bus arrival time prediction method based on the operation data of former buses in multiple lines. The method comprises the following five steps of dividing a to-be-predicted bus line into a plurality of driving road sections, establishing a corresponding relationship between the road sections and the bus line, calculating the travel time of a bus on different road sections, estimating the travel time of a to-be-predicted bus on different road sections, and predicting the time for the bus to arrive at a downstream bus station. According to the technical scheme of the invention, the time for a target bus to arrive at each downstream bus station can be predicted, and the to-be-predicted bus line is divided into a plurality of road sections with road intersections as division nodes. Meanwhile, the GPS data of all buses that pass through a corresponding road section within a previous period of time are fully utilized, so that the expected travel time of a to-be-predicted bus on different road sections can be predicted. Finally, a real-time bus arrival time prediction model is established, and the time for the to-be-predicted bus to arrive at each downstream bus station can be determined.

Description

Technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of urban intelligent public transportation information processing, and specifically relates to a real-time bus arrival time prediction method. Background technique [0002] The development of urban public transportation is one of the most effective means to alleviate urban traffic congestion and improve the living environment. By providing passengers with real-time bus arrival information, it can meet passengers' personalized travel needs, reduce unnecessary waiting time for passengers, and make passengers more reasonable arrangements for travel, thereby enhancing the attractiveness of bus travel. As the urban road traffic environment has complex and changeable characteristics, how to improve the real-time and accuracy of the prediction results of bus arrival time has always been a difficult point. [0003] The existing bus arrival time prediction methods mainly use bus GPS data as the data source, use historical ...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

In the above patents and papers, the data fusion of multiple lines is used for prediction, which improves the prediction accuracy to a certain extent, but only considers the line operation data that completely overlaps with the two stations adjacent to the line to be predicted, and ignores some The reference function of the coincident line operation data to the predicted line

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