Method for predicting range influenced by abnormal traffic event of highway

Abstract

The invention relates to a method for predicting the range influenced by an abnormal traffic event of highway, and suitable for main lines of the highway. The method comprises that A Van Aerde traffic flow model of a road is established; a target function and an extremely low error threshold are set, and the duration of the event and the longest queuing time are predict; the traffic capacities of an accident point under multiple factors are determined, the upstream flows of the accident point within different time intervals are predicted based on data of vehicle detectors, and corresponding densities are obtained; the velocity of evanescent waves, the velocity of queuing waves at corresponding time and the influence length are calculated by utilizing the traffic wave theory; the position relation among the currently estimated queuing position, upstream and downstream ramps and the vehicle detectors is determined; and the solution of the target function is determined, and the longest queuing time and the range influenced by the event are determined. Based on establishment of the Van Aerde model, the method takes influence of traffic flow change and other factors on the velocities of the waves, the practical traffic flow features can be more effectively reflected, the adaptability is higher, and the prediction accuracy can be improved.

Description

Technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of intelligent transportation, and particularly relates to a method for estimating the influence range of an abnormal highway traffic event. Background technique [0002] Abnormal highway incidents will have a greater impact on road traffic, easily cause traffic congestion, and spread rapidly upstream along the incident site, making road resources underutilized. Therefore, abnormal highway traffic incidents and the traffic congestion caused by them It has become an important issue for the operation and control of the transportation system. Due to the high confinement of the expressway and the high-speed driving of vehicles, it is inevitable that the upstream vehicles from the incident point will move to the incident point. The impact of the traffic abnormal incident will be expressed as the length of the congestion queue, which will further cause the vehicles to be difficult to evacuate and block, and traffic del...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, most current queuing length estimation methods based on the traffic wave theory use the Greenhill model. The data used in the model establishment come from urban roads, and there are certain limitations in applying it to expressways, that is, the theoretical model does not It must be able to reflect the traffic flow characteristics of the expressway

Moreover, most people think that the wave speed of traffic flow is constant, and the influence of the random fluctuation of traffic flow on the wave speed of traffic flow is not considered effectively, which cannot reflect the actual situation well.

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