A dynamic risk assessment method for power transmission and transformation equipment operation

Abstract

The invention discloses an assessment method of operating dynamic risk of electric transmission and transformation equipment. In combination with a fault tree and event tree analysis method, causes and effects of a fault mode are analyzed, a bow-tie model taking the fault mode as a central node is formed, the bow-tie model can be used for analyzing causes, effects and risk of accidents in combination with a fault tree and an event tree, and corresponding risk control measures are determined. According to the operating risk of the electric transmission and transformation equipment, the operating risk can be assessed dynamically. Compared with a fault diagnosis mechanism in the prior art, a dynamic fault diagnosis mechanism has the advantages that judgment of evidence information requirements is added, blindness of a diagnosis process is reduced, the fault condition of the electric transmission and transformation equipment can be judged effectively, and therefore a result, obtained through assessment, of the service life of the electric transmission and transformation equipment is more accurate and conforms to actual conditions better, and the assessment method has better guiding significance in engineering application.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of power equipment operation, and in particular relates to a dynamic risk assessment method for power transmission and transformation equipment operation. Background technique [0002] Power system reliability refers to the measurement of the power system's ability to supply power and energy to power users uninterruptedly according to acceptable quality standards and required quantities. It has always been one of the most important research issues in power systems. With the increase of the scale of modern power system and the continuous improvement of users' requirements for power quality, especially the occurrence of several blackouts at home and abroad, the safety and reliability of power system have attracted people's great attention. The power system is a complex system composed of electrical equipment such as generators, transformers, circuit breakers, power transmission equipment, and electrical equipm...

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Problems solved by technology

Among them, the condition-based maintenance strategy based on LCC mainly focuses on reducing the total cost of equipment inspection and maintenance, without emphasizing the impact of equipment maintenance arrangements on system operation reliability; the RCM strategy tends to improve system reliability more, but ignores Various losses may be caused by equipment failure due to untimely maintenance; while the RBM strategy can highlight events with low probability but serious consequences, and balance all uncertain benefits and costs, so it has been widely used in decision-making optimization of condition-based maintenance , but because the currently used risk assessment indicators are too single, factors such as power grid operation reliability and equipment failure losses are not considered comprehensively, which affects the accuracy of maintenance decisions

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