Predication method of happening position of slump disaster after earthquake based on multiple factors

A prediction method and multi-factor technology, applied in prediction, seismic signal processing, instruments, etc., can solve problems affecting rescuers and material delivery

Active Publication Date: 2013-10-23
福惠投资有限公司
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  • Summary
  • Abstract
  • Description
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  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

The Lushan earthquake that occurred in Ya'an City, Sichuan Province on April 20, 2013 also triggered a large number of collapses and landslides, which blocked and cut off traffic, seriously affecting the delivery of rescuers and supplies
In the current research, the application of statistical analysis method and Newmark model are basically independent, and the existing technology only uses one of them for calculation and analysis

Method used

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  • Predication method of happening position of slump disaster after earthquake based on multiple factors
  • Predication method of happening position of slump disaster after earthquake based on multiple factors
  • Predication method of happening position of slump disaster after earthquake based on multiple factors

Examples

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Embodiment 1

[0118] The following will take Wenchuan County, Sichuan Province, my country as an example of the post-earthquake avalanche disaster analysis to specifically illustrate the method for constructing a prediction model of the post-earthquake avalanche disaster according to the present invention.

[0119] According to the "Emergency Survey of Space Remote Sensing in the Wenchuan Earthquake Disaster Area" compiled by the Ministry of Land and Resources and China Geological Survey [54] The data in the atlas shows that there were 1,904 actual collapse points in Wenchuan County after the earthquake. In the binary Logistic regression analysis, the dependent variable of these points was assigned a value of 1, indicating the collapse point. For non-slip points, in this embodiment, the create random points tool in ArcGIS is used to randomly generate them. Considering the uncertainty of the distribution of the actual collapse point in a certain area, this embodiment draws the occurrence ran...

Embodiment 2

[0178] In this example, the ROC curve is used to verify the forecasting effect of the forecast model formula I-8 established in Example 1 when it is applied to Beichuan County, Sichuan Province.

[0179] Beichuan Qiang Autonomous County is located in the northwest of Sichuan Basin. Geographical coordinates: 31°35′-31°38′2″ north latitude, 104°26′15″-104°29′10″ east longitude. It borders Jiangyou City in the east, An County in the south, Mao County in the west, Songpan and Pingwu in the north , covering an area of ​​2867.83 square kilometers.

[0180] According to the occurrence probability model formula 1-8 of post-earthquake avalanches and slide disasters established according to the embodiment of the invention 1, the process of occurrence probability prediction of regional earthquake-induced collapse and landslide disasters is mainly divided into three parts: obtaining geographical parameters, geological parameters and seismic parameters, calculating Newmark displacement D ...

Embodiment 3

[0191] The post-earthquake avalanche disaster analysis in Beichuan County, Sichuan Province, my country will be taken as an example below to specifically illustrate the method for constructing a prediction model for post-earthquake avalanche disasters according to the present invention.

[0192] First, obtain various relevant parameters of Beichuan County and determine the Newmark displacement Dn based on the Newmark displacement calculation model.

[0193] For the specific steps of calculating the Newmark displacement Dn, refer to the relevant content of embodiment 2, which will not be repeated here, and the calculation results are as follows Figure 13 shown.

[0194]Then, based on the 617 actual collapse points in Beichuan and the 617 non-collapse points randomly generated by ArcGIS outside the range of 200m from the actual collapse point in Beichuan County, the dependent variable of the collapse point was assigned a value of 1, and the non-collapse point The dependent var...

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Abstract

The invention provides a predication method of a happening position of a slump disaster after an earthquake based on multiple factors. The method comprises the following steps: obtaining a plurality of basic geographical parameters of a space to be predicated, a road parameter, a plurality of geological parameters, an earthquake parameter, a geographic position of at least one known slump point and geographic positions of a plurality of points which are not slumped; calculating a Newmark displacement amount Dn based on a Newmark displacement model; constructing a binary Logistic regression equation by a distance from a predicated position to a river, a distance from the predicated position to a fault zone, a topographic relief level and a distance from the predicated position to a road; calculating a partial regression coefficient of respective variable factor in the regression equation by taking all the parameters of the known slump point and the points which are not slumped, and the calculated Newmark displacement amount Dn as known conditions; and utilizing the calculated partial regression coefficient to construct a slump disaster predication model of the space to be predicted.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of post-earthquake disaster reduction and prevention and disaster risk assessment, and more specifically, the present invention relates to a multi-factor-based method for predicting the location of a landslide disaster after an earthquake. Background technique [0002] Earthquake, as a destructive disaster, poses a great threat to human life and property safety. While strong earthquakes cause damage to structures on the ground, they also often induce secondary disasters. Especially in mountainous areas, earthquakes often trigger a large number of secondary geological disasters. The occurrence of these disasters such as collapses, landslides, and debris flows has aggravated the earthquake losses, and the losses caused sometimes even exceed the direct losses caused by the earthquake itself. The post-earthquake collapse and landslide disasters are the first type of geological disasters triggered after ...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G01V1/28G06Q10/04G06Q50/00
Inventor 王瑛宋崇振李娟
Owner 福惠投资有限公司
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