Medium-term generating capacity prediction method and system applied to large-scale distributed photovoltaic power station, electronic equipment and readable storage medium

Abstract

The invention provides a medium-term generating capacity prediction method and system applied to a large-scale distributed photovoltaic power station, electronic equipment and a readable storage medium. The medium-term generating capacity prediction method comprises the following steps: acquiring historical working condition data of each independent photovoltaic power station; judging whether the sample number of the historical working condition data meets a preset prediction condition or not: under the condition that the sample number meets the prediction condition, predicting the next-month generating capacity of the independent photovoltaic power station based on the historical working condition data according to a multivariable time sequence model obtained through pre-training; and under the condition that the sample number does not meet the prediction condition, predicting the next-month generating capacity of the independent photovoltaic power station according to the prediction values of the plurality of adjacent photovoltaic power stations of the independent photovoltaic power station.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of distributed system consensus, and specifically discloses a method, system, electronic equipment and readable storage medium for mid-term power generation forecasting applied to large-scale distributed photovoltaic power plants. Background technique [0002] At present, my country is promoting the new energy strategy in an all-round way. After the completion of large-scale distributed photovoltaic power stations, a comprehensive management plan based on the medium-term power generation forecasting technology of photovoltaic projects is directly related to the actual situation of power station owners, fund providers and operation and maintenance managers. At the same time, accurately estimating the power generation of photovoltaic power plants in the medium term is also of great significance to the improvement of grid planning, power dispatch optimization, and power plant operation and maintenance management....

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, the forecast of medium-term power generation is affected by factors such as the large number of civil power stations, the scattered and wide distribution of power stations, the lack of sufficient periodic historical data samples for newly installed power stations, the low accuracy of weather forecasts, and the low quality of civil power station equipment data. There are significant differences in technical methods between forecasting and short-term power generation forecasting, and short-term power generation forecasting techniques are not suitable for medium-term forecasting

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