A method and system for predicting building carbon dioxide emissions

Abstract

The invention belongs to the field of building carbon dioxide emission prediction and carbon dioxide emission spatial pattern prediction technology, in particular, it relates to a method and system for predicting building carbon dioxide emission. ×10km spatial benchmark grid, combined with the predicted results of population distribution and per capita building area, calculate the per capita building area and population of different building sub-sectors in the spatial benchmark grid; according to the energy consumption per unit area of ​​different building sub-sectors Based on historical data, estimate the energy consumption per unit area of ​​different building sub-sectors in each benchmark grid in the future; use the Kaya identity method, use the spatial evolution model, and obtain the energy consumption of each benchmark grid in the future target year based on the above accounting results and estimation results The carbon dioxide emissions of residential buildings and the carbon dioxide emissions of public buildings in each benchmark grid in the future target year are summarized as the prediction results of building carbon dioxide emissions.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of forecasting carbon dioxide emissions of buildings and forecasting spatial patterns of carbon dioxide emissions, and in particular relates to a forecasting method and a forecasting system for carbon dioxide emissions of buildings. Background technique [0002] The construction industry plays an important role in energy conservation and climate change mitigation. The existing technology discloses that the carbon dioxide emissions in the construction sector are 2.21 billion tons, of which 710 million tons are directly emitted from the combustion of fossil fuels such as heating and cooking; among them, 170 million tons are emitted from central heating boilers; 150 million tons are indirectly emitted from purchased heat and electricity. million tons, of which 240 million tons are emitted from combined heat and power heating. Due to the further improvement of residents' living standards and service industry, t...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0005] 1) It does not fully consider the energy development trends and characteristics of new buildings and existing buildings, and cannot reflect the temporal and spatial differences of carbon dioxide emissions in different sub-sectors of buildings;

[0006] 2) It is impossible to identify the temporal and spatial heterogeneity of building carbon dioxide emissions at the same time, and it is impossible to screen the typical areas of building carbon dioxide emissions and propose more targeted emission reduction targets;

[0007] 3) Lack of bottom-up and top-down forecasting methods, resulting in a large deviation between the fitting results of building carbon dioxide emissions and actual emissions under different development scenarios, resulting in a decrease in the accuracy of the data

Images