Power distribution network pre-disaster fault scene simulation and prediction method and device

Abstract

The invention provides a power distribution network pre-disaster fault scene simulation and prediction method and device. The method comprises the following steps: establishing a power distribution network fault probability model; generating a power distribution network fault scene set according to the preset disaster information and the preset total number of generated scenes; carrying out topology reconstruction in the power distribution network fault scene set to establish a fault topology reconstruction model; processing to obtain the fault loss of each fault scene and the scene topology similarity between the fault scenes; clustering the fault scenes according to the fault loss to obtain a plurality of first scene clustering results; performing clustering on each first scene clustering result according to topological similarity to obtain a plurality of second scene clustering results; and obtaining a pre-disaster fault scene simulation prediction result of the power distribution network according to the second scene clustering result. Scene generation is carried out according to disaster forecast information, scene clustering is carried out by using the fault loss and topological similarity of the scene, a basis is provided for optimization decision making based on the scene, and the influence of the disaster on the power distribution network is analyzed before the disaster.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of resilient recovery of distribution networks, in particular to a method and device for simulating and predicting pre-disaster fault scenarios of distribution networks. Background technique [0002] Power system resilience refers to the ability of the power grid to change its own state to reduce failure losses and restore normal power supply levels as soon as possible under extreme circumstances such as major disasters and man-made attacks. The distribution network needs to make early deployment and prevention for disasters, and make pre-disaster deployment decisions with reasonable consideration of disaster uncertainties. [0003] Resilience research focuses on extreme natural disasters. It is difficult to obtain the impact of future disasters through historical data during such low-probability times, and it is not possible to simply use probability models to measure disaster outcomes. In this case, scene...

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] The present invention provides a method and device for simulating and predicting distribution network fault scenarios before a disaster, which is used to solve the defect of lack of distribution network fault scene clustering research in the prior art, realize clustering based on distribution network fault scenarios, and provide Provide basis for pre-disaster resilience decision-making of power grid

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