Power grid region weather forecasting method based on dynamic downscaling

Abstract

The invention discloses a power grid region weather forecasting method based on dynamic downscaling, comprising the following steps: 1, setting a region horizontal resolution P, a key region horizontal resolution Q and the number of forecasting days N, wherein, P > Q; 2, based on a forecast field generated by a forecast system, making an hour-by-hour basic ground meteorological element forecast result hour by hour for the next N days with the regional horizontal resolution P; and 3, performing downscaling forecast on the key region in a micro-scale mode by using the background forecast field of the resolution P, and dynamically integrating hour-by-hour forecast results of the key region horizontal resolution Q for the next N days. The power downscaling method and the statistical downscaling method are adopted to refine whole-region forecasting to key-region forecasting, the method is suitable for various topographic conditions, particularly, a dynamic integration scheme with the shortest rolling sample remarkably improves the forecasting effect, and the method can be effectively applied to forecasting analysis of meteorological elements of a power transmission line.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of electric meteorological disaster early warning, and relates to a power grid regional weather forecast method based on power downscaling. Background technique [0002] With the continuous expansion of the scale of the power grid, the influence of severe weather conditions on overhead transmission lines is becoming more and more obvious. Affected by rain, snow and freezing wind, the transmission lines in the vast area from Heilongjiang in the north to Hunan in the south have tripped, Power outage accidents such as falling poles and disconnected lines seriously threaten the safe operation of equipment and power grids. [0003] In order to improve the disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities of the power grid and improve the safe and stable operation of the power grid, in recent years, the provincial power companies have actively strengthened cooperation with the meteorological department, and actively...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, disastrous weather has an increasing impact on the safe operation of the power grid. At present, the meteorological forecast and early warning products released by the research have a very large gap with the demand of the power grid in terms of time and space precision.

[0004] Existing methods cannot provide refined weather forecasts of different voltage levels, different floor heights, and different scales for key areas and key transmission lines

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