Oil reservoir recovery ratio prediction method and device

Abstract

The invention provides an oil reservoir recovery ratio prediction method and device. The method comprises the steps of establishing an original model of a multivariate linear regression model for oilreservoir recovery ratio prediction based on multiple predetermined parameter variables; establishing a quantitative parameter variable model according to the quantitative parameter variables and theoriginal model; establishing a virtual variable model according to the qualitative parameter variables; introducing the virtual variable model into the parameter variable model so as to obtain a parameter model containing virtual variables; performing multiple collinearity test on the parameter model containing the virtual variables so as to obtain a fourth model; performing heteroscedasticity test on the fourth model so as to obtain a fifth model; performing autocorrelation test on the fifth model so as to obtain an oil reservoir recovery ratio prediction model; and after obtaining a parameter variable value of the oil reservoir recovery ratio prediction model, inputting the parameter variable value into the oil reservoir recovery ratio prediction model so as to obtain an oil reservoir recovery ratio prediction value. The oil reservoir recovery ratio prediction method and device have the advantages of being capable of predicting the oil reservoir recovery ratio, suitable for various oil reservoirs, different development modes and different development stages and high in accuracy.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of petroleum engineering, in particular to a method and device for predicting oil recovery factor. Background technique [0002] Reservoir recovery factor is the most important comprehensive index to measure the effect and level of oilfield development. Its prediction methods are mainly static method and dynamic method. Among them, the static method is suitable for new areas and units with a short production time, and the dynamic method is better than the static method. Applicable to the middle and late stages of development. [0003] The current petroleum industry standard "Calculation Method of Petroleum Recoverable Reserves" (SY / T 5367-2010) provides specific calculation methods, in which the static method mainly uses theoretical formulas, empirical formulas, analogy and other methods; the dynamic method mainly includes delivery Subtraction curve method, water drive characteristic curve method, Tong Xian...

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] Although technicians have made some achievements in the study of recovery factor prediction and formulated industry standards, the application process of the static method given in it needs to be artificially given the value of some / certain parameters or artificially set a certain value. The value range of some parameters causes human error; and with the advancement of technology, the classification of reservoirs is more refined, and the conversion of development methods has become normal, while empirical formulas are only applicable to specific reservoir types / development methods, limited experience The formula is difficult to adapt to the development reality; the dynamic method has high requirements for the integrity, continuity and reliability of historical data fitting, and various calculation methods have their own applicability and limitations

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