Monthly runoff prediction method based on hydrothermal coupling balance principle

Abstract

The invention provides a monthly runoff prediction method based on a hydrothermal coupling balance principle, and belongs to the technical field of hydrological prediction. The method comprises the steps of generalizing the water storage space in the monthly-scale watershed hydrological cycle process into a soil water tank and an underground water tank under the natural condition; calculating themonthly-scale direct runoff of the soil water tank and the base flow of the underground water tank of a drainage basin; and adding the direct runoff of the soil water tank and the base flow of the underground water tank to obtain monthly runoff depth of the drainage basin, and obtaining monthly average flow volume of the drainage basin through unit conversion. According to the invention, a hydrothermal coupling balance principle is used as a basis, on the basis of analyzing a monthly-scale watershed hydrological cycle process mechanism, a proper hydrological cycle process description structureis selected, key processes and influence factors of a monthly-scale basin hydrological cycle process are grasped, a generalization method is adopted to express nonlinear relationships among monthly-scale hydrological processes, and nonlinear storage and discharge relationships between the soil and underground water storage structures are fully considered, so that monthly runoff prediction can beaccurately and effectively carried out.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of hydrological prediction, in particular to a monthly runoff prediction method based on the principle of water-heat coupling balance. Background technique [0002] It is of great significance to study the simulation and prediction methods of the watershed hydrological cycle process and effectively realize the monthly-scale watershed runoff simulation and prediction for in-depth understanding of the hydrological cycle mechanism, hydrological cycle process simulation, water resources allocation and management. The occurrence and evolution of the hydrological cycle process in the basin follow the basic physical laws of nature, such as the law of conservation of mass, the law of conservation of energy, and the law of conservation of momentum. Based on these physical laws, hydrological principles, mathematical physics equations or mathematical statistics are used to simulate local or overall runoff formation and...

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Problems solved by technology

Although Yang Hanbo et al. (2008) derived the analytical expression of the hydrothermal coupling equilibrium equation applicable to any time scale based on the Budyko assumption; however, because the analytical expression does not fully reflect the actual hydrological cycle process on a smaller time scale, in There are great limitations in practical application

[0007] (2) Most monthly runoff prediction methods use a linear method to describe the complex hydrological process, which is difficult to effectively simulate the actual outflow process of soil water or groundwater, and the accuracy of the simulation of the actual soil water or groundwater storage and discharge process is not good.

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