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A short-term power prediction method for wind farms

A technology for power forecasting and wind farms, applied in forecasting, data processing applications, instruments, etc., can solve the problems of low short-term power forecasting accuracy, large short-term power forecasting errors, etc. Accuracy, avoid the effect of over-reliance on forecast wind speed

Active Publication Date: 2022-07-22
NR ELECTRIC CO LTD +1
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Problems solved by technology

Due to the excessive reliance on numerical weather prediction in existing methods, once the numerical weather prediction data has a large deviation, the more accurate the mapping relationship is, the greater the error of short-term power prediction will be, resulting in a low accuracy rate of short-term power prediction

Method used

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  • A short-term power prediction method for wind farms
  • A short-term power prediction method for wind farms
  • A short-term power prediction method for wind farms

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Embodiment Construction

[0017] The present invention will be described in further detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments.

[0018] like figure 1 As shown, the present invention provides a short-term power prediction method for a wind farm, and the detailed steps are as follows:

[0019] Step (1), initialize and select the actual power generation P from the current day Pdays=28 days 实 and short-term power prediction data P 短期 , with a time resolution of 15 min per point.

[0020] Step (2), for all the actual power generation data of the wind farm in the corresponding time period after the first round of screening, solve to obtain the average value P of the actual power generation 实平均 , at the same time, the average value of the short-term power forecast data of the wind farm in this time period is calculated to obtain P 短期平均 .

[0021] In step (3), the correlation coefficient r1 between the actual power generation power and the short-term power predictio...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a short-term power prediction method for a wind farm, which comprises the following steps: (1) selecting the number of days for initializing data; (2) calculating the average value of the actual generated power and short-term power prediction data of the wind farm during this period of time (3) Calculate the correlation coefficient r1 for the actual generated power and the short-term power prediction data, and perform differential processing according to the results of r1, and finally realize the short-term power prediction of the wind farm. The invention avoids the wind farm from being overly dependent on the forecast wind speed in the numerical weather forecast, and improves the short-term power forecasting accuracy of the wind farm when the deviation of the forecast wind speed is large.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a new energy power prediction method, in particular to a short-term power prediction method of a wind farm. Background technique [0002] At present, more and more wind farms are being constructed, and power prediction of wind farms is an important part of wind farms. Short-term power forecasting is an important link in wind farm power forecasting. The accuracy of short-term power forecasting of wind farms is crucial to the power generation efficiency of wind farms. Improving the short-term power forecasting accuracy of wind farms is conducive to promoting grid consumption of wind farm power generation. increase the economic benefits of wind farms. [0003] The existing short-term power prediction of wind farms uses artificial intelligence algorithms. According to the input data of the actual wind speed and actual generated power of the wind farm, after using the artificial intelligence algorithm, the mapping relationship betw...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/06
Inventor 翟剑华曹丹丹唐孝舟黄山峰刘青红孙长兰徐浩王小平章叶青
Owner NR ELECTRIC CO LTD
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