Method for predicting and evaluating impact influence of passenger flow after large-scale activity on subway station

Abstract

The invention provides a method for predicting and evaluating the impact influence of the passenger flow after a large-scale activity on a subway station. The method comprises the steps of establishing and solving an optimal travel behavior decision model of individual passengers from a large activity venue to a destination point at the end moment of a large activity based on an evacuation trafficnetwork, and obtaining an alternative travel scheme set of the individual passengers; constructing and solving a large-scale activity scattered individual passenger discrete travel decision-making model by utilizing a random utility theory based on the alternative travel scheme set to obtain the probability that the passengers select each alternative scheme; and calculating the total evacuated passenger flow volume borne by each urban rail transit station after the large-scale activity is finished. According to the method, the convenience of multi-mode traffic such as walking, shared bicycles, connection buses and taxies around a large activity venue is comprehensively considered, the optimal travel decision model and the discrete selection behavior model of scattered crowds are established, and the method has important significance for advanced response and effective organization of a subway system in the period of a large activity.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of urban rail transit passenger flow management, and in particular to a method for predicting and evaluating the impact of large-scale event leaving passenger flow on subway stations. Background technique [0002] Urban rail transit has the characteristics of fast speed, high safety, convenience, and punctuality. More and more urban residents regard it as the preferred mode of travel. In recent years, with the development of my country's social economy and culture, large-scale sports events, concerts, annual meetings, press conferences and other large-scale activities have gradually increased. The common feature of these activities is that crowds gather in fixed and relatively closed places, and at the end of the stage, large-scale crowds evacuate from the venue to the outside of the venue, and evacuate through urban traffic. It is a huge challenge for urban managers to bring serious impacts and even have a...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

The disadvantage of this method is: only from the perspective of the whole travel time, it is considered that passengers will only choose one mode of transportation during a trip, and it cannot be used to explain the phenomenon and behavior of multi-modal combined rides, such as connecting buses (walking, sharing, etc.) bicycle) + subway

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