Gas mass life cycle prediction method and gas concentration prediction method based on same

Abstract

The invention relates to a gas mass life cycle prediction method and a gas concentration prediction method based on the same. The gas mass life cycle prediction method comprises the following steps of1) dividing a gas mass life cycle into the inoculation, the steady-state drifting and the diffusion loss according to the migration rule of a gas mass in a roadway and the change of a gas concentration attenuation rate during the migration process of the gas mass; 2) collecting a group of gas concentration data in the roadway; (3) establishing a GM (1, 1) prediction model, compiling an MATLAB program, and inputting the gas concentration data and the number of the subsequent points needing to predict the gas concentration value in the MATLAB program; 4) running a program to obtain a predictedgas concentration value, and calculating a corresponding gas concentration attenuation rate; 5) correspondingly obtaining the stage of the life cycle of the gas mass according to the change conditionof the gas concentration attenuation rate, and 6) judging whether the high-concentration gas mass can be safely diffused or discharged out of the roadway, and if not, taking the corresponding measuresin advance to prevent the accidents. The method can effectively prevent the underground disasters.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a prediction method, in particular to a gas mass life cycle prediction method and a gas concentration prediction method based thereon, and belongs to the technical field of gas early warning. Background technique [0002] At present, the research on the migration law of gas mass is still very scarce. In the research on the gas migration law in the return airway of the mining face, it is found that the newly gushed high-concentration gas gas from the working face will form after a certain dilution. A gas mass can drift forward with the wind current, and the internal concentration structure of the gas mass will not change significantly after a certain distance. Therefore, it shows that the gas in the return airway has the migration characteristics of the air mass drift carried by the wind flow, and this migration law generally exists in the underground roadway. [0003] At present, the research on the distribution of underground...

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Problems solved by technology

[0003] At present, the research on the distribution of underground gas and the migration law of gas masses is mostly limited to the regional gas concentration, and there is no research on a gas mass during the period from the beginning of gas gushing to the complete diffusion of the gas. Monitor and predict the change of underground gas concentration, so as to predict whether the gas concentration is within the safe range

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