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A method for analyzing the interests of an electricity seller considering the load forecasting accuracy

A technology of load forecasting and analysis method, applied in the field of profit analysis of e-commerce, can solve the problems affecting the cost and income of electricity purchase of e-commerce

Inactive Publication Date: 2018-12-18
NORTH CHINA ELECTRIC POWER UNIV (BAODING)
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Problems solved by technology

In the case of competition in the electricity sales market, for electricity retailers to obtain income and control costs, the most fundamental thing is load forecasting, and the accuracy of the forecast will affect the electricity sellers' electricity purchase costs and income

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  • A method for analyzing the interests of an electricity seller considering the load forecasting accuracy
  • A method for analyzing the interests of an electricity seller considering the load forecasting accuracy
  • A method for analyzing the interests of an electricity seller considering the load forecasting accuracy

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Embodiment Construction

[0031] The technical solution of the present invention will be further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings. The specific steps of a preferred embodiment of a method for analyzing the interests of electricity sellers considering the accuracy of load forecasting in the present invention are as follows:

[0032] S1. Construct a power prediction analysis model based on system dynamics;

[0033] S2. Construct a profit analysis model for electricity retailers considering the accuracy of load forecasting.

[0034] The following takes the user information in a certain region as an example for further explanation.

[0035] Table 1 shows the monthly electricity statistics of the region in the previous year. The electricity prices of various users at different times are shown in Table 2. The unit price of electricity is 0.48 yuan / kWh, the real-time electricity market benchmark price is 0.7 yuan / kWh, the elastic coefficient for deviation electricity i...

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Abstract

The utility model relates to a method for analyzing the interests of an electricity seller considering the load forecasting accuracy, which relates to the technical field of analyzing the interests ofthe seller. Under the policy of liberalization of electricity sales, there is competition in the electricity market, earn income, cost containment For e-marketers, the most fundamental is load forecasting, the accuracy of forecasting will affect the purchase cost and income of the electricity sellers, such as the large deviation of load forecasting will bring additional real-time market transaction costs, so constantly adjusting the medium-and long-term contract power through accurate load forecasting is an important means to reduce costs and improve corporate profits. The invention comprisesthe following steps: a power quantity prediction analysis model based on system dynamics is constructed; a profit analysis model of electricity sellers considering load forecasting accuracy is constructed.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of profit analysis of electricity sellers, in particular to a profit analysis method of electricity sellers considering the accuracy of load forecasting. Background technique [0002] Under the policy of deregulation of electricity sales, power generators and power transmission and distribution companies do not directly face users. As an intermediary between the two, electricity retailers will directly contact end users and sell electricity to users to collect electricity fees. How to carry out the electricity sales business according to the needs of users in the "control the middle, let go of the two ends" is one of the key points in the future reform of the electricity market. In the case of competition in the electricity sales market, for electricity retailers to obtain income and control costs, the most fundamental thing is load forecasting, and the accuracy of the forecast will affect the electricity se...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q10/06G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q10/0639G06Q50/06
Inventor 吴美琼牛东晓王梦赵伟博
Owner NORTH CHINA ELECTRIC POWER UNIV (BAODING)
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