Block stone side slope catastrophe danger pre-warning and forecasting method

Abstract

The invention relates to a block stone side slope catastrophe danger pre-warning and forecasting method. The method comprises the following steps of: 1, acquiring data in real time through a rain gauge, a soil infiltration meter and a displacement meter on the scene; 2, acquiring a fissure condition and a plant coverage condition at the scene through manpower; 3, constructing a recurrent neural network model of block stone side slope catastrophe time according to the data acquired in the steps 1 and 2; 4, establishing a continuous Markov chain probability model of the block stone side slope catastrophe time according to the data acquired in the steps 1 and 2; 5, synthesizing the models of the steps 3 and 4 through weighted average so as to obtain a final prediction model, and before a critical failure time or an instability time, carrying out early warning and forecasting on a block stone side slope catastrophe danger. Compared with the prior art, the method is capable of carrying outearly warning and forecasting on block stone side slope catastrophe dangers more reasonably and more practicably, and has the features of being multi-parameterized and dynamic.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of accumulation body slope geological disaster engineering, in particular to a method for early warning and forecasting of catastrophe hazards of broken rock slopes. Background technique [0002] China is one of the countries with the worst landslides in the world. Only in the six years from 2006 to 2011, there were 157,927 landslides in the whole country. In recent years, China's annual economic losses caused by landslide disasters are more than 1 billion US dollars. In 2009, there were only 16 super-large and large-scale landslide disasters across the country, with direct economic losses reaching 190 million yuan; in 2011, there were 7 major landslide disasters with more than 10 people dead, missing, or direct economic losses of more than 100 million yuan, with direct economic losses of more than 100 million yuan. Loss of 599 million yuan. Landslide disasters not only cause huge economic losses, but also seriousl...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

These methods require a lot of expert experience, and are generally applicable to the prediction of rocky slopes, but the prediction of instability of crushed stone slopes is not yet mature.

At the same time, these research results at home and abroad still have shortcomings such as low precision and cumbersome implementation.

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