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Load prediction method based on wavelet transform and harmonic search improved grey model

A technology of load forecasting and wavelet transform, applied in forecasting, instruments, complex mathematical operations, etc., can solve problems such as inaccurate short-term load forecasting results

Inactive Publication Date: 2018-01-16
HOHAI UNIV
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Problems solved by technology

The short-term load forecasting results obtained by GM (gray model) independent forecasting are sometimes not accurate enough, so it needs to be combined with other methods to improve its performance

Method used

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  • Load prediction method based on wavelet transform and harmonic search improved grey model
  • Load prediction method based on wavelet transform and harmonic search improved grey model
  • Load prediction method based on wavelet transform and harmonic search improved grey model

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Embodiment Construction

[0073] Below in conjunction with accompanying drawing and specific embodiment, further illustrate the present invention, should be understood that these embodiments are only for illustrating the present invention and are not intended to limit the scope of the present invention, after having read the present invention, those skilled in the art will understand various aspects of the present invention Modifications in equivalent forms all fall within the scope defined by the appended claims of this application.

[0074] Such as figure 1 Shown, the present invention is based on the load forecasting method of wavelet transform and harmony search improved gray model, comprises the following steps:

[0075] Firstly, the load data is input, and data preprocessing is performed on the original sequence formed by the load data. In an ideal situation, an input variable is a detailed explanatory variable, and the load data of the previous few days is a highly detailed explanatory variable...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a load prediction method based on wavelet transform and a harmonic search improved grey model, and can be applied to scientific research and engineering application in the field related to electric power. The method includes: performing decomposition processing and analysis on load data by employing wavelet decomposition and reconstruction, inputting reconstructed data oneby one to the harmonic search improved grey load model to obtain predicted values, and superposing the predicted values to obtain a load predicted value; and finally evaluating the load prediction capability. According to the method, the problem of over-fitting of high-frequency components is solved based on the guarantee of fitting of low-frequency components, required information is less, the prediction can be accomplished in the condition of relative lack of data, and the prediction precision and stability can be improved compared with the conventional grey model.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a load forecasting method based on wavelet transform and harmony search improved gray model, which belongs to the field of short-term load forecasting. Background technique [0002] In power system planning and operation management, load forecasting is a necessary prerequisite for reasonable arrangements for power generation, transmission, and power distribution. Power system load forecasting is an important part of power system planning and the basis of power system economic operation. Load forecasting includes two meanings: the forecast of future demand (power) and the forecast of future electricity consumption (energy). The forecast of power demand determines the size of the new capacity of power generation, transmission, and distribution systems; the power forecast determines the type of power generation equipment (such as peak-shaving units, base-load units, etc.). The results of power system load forecasting can reflect...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06G06F17/14
Inventor 卫志农郭勉臧海祥王苗苗孙国强朱瑛
Owner HOHAI UNIV
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