Sensitivity-analysis-based dispatching plan evaluation method of cascade hydropower station

Abstract

The invention discloses a sensitivity-analysis-based dispatching plan evaluation method of a cascade hydropower station. Under the circumstance that a daily planned power generation dispatching plan is formulated by a cascade hydropower station, Monte Carlo simulation of inflowing runoff of a reservoir is carried out by changing a runoff size and a runoff variance; Monte Carlo simulation of a grid load is carried out by changing the load value; uncertainty of the runoff and uncertainty of the load are simulated; a power station operating index parameter is calculated based on a conventional optimization dispatching model; and statistic analyses of an average and variance of parameter index sensitivity are carried out to realize dispatching plan evaluation. The method can be applied to evaluate whether the power generation dispatching plan is robust in a quantitative manner and is capable of coping with uncertainty of the runoff and load.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of optimal operation of hydropower energy, and more specifically relates to a method for evaluating dispatching schemes of cascade hydropower stations based on sensitivity analysis. Background technique [0002] Reservoir runoff information and power grid load information cannot be accurately predicted, resulting in the objective existence of runoff uncertainty and load uncertainty. Hydropower station operators cannot therefore judge whether the established power generation scheduling plan is robust and can cope with runoff and load uncertainties. sex. After the existing cascade hydropower generation dispatching plan is formulated, there is often a large deviation between the actual execution of the dispatching plan and the expectation due to the influence of runoff uncertainty and load uncertainty. [0003] It can be seen that there is a technical problem in the prior art that it is impossible to judge whether the e...

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] Aiming at the above deficiencies or improvement needs of the prior art, the present invention provides a method for evaluating dispatching schemes of cascade hydropower stations based on sensitivity analysis, thereby solving the problem in the prior art that it is impossible to judge whether the established dispatching schemes for power generation are robust and able to cope with Technical Issues of Uncertainty in Runoff and Loading

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