Photovoltaic generation power volatility and automatic generation control reserve demand computing method thereof

Abstract

The invention belongs to the technical field of grid-connected photovoltaic power generation, in particular to the photovoltaic generation power volatility based on an autoregressive model and an automatic generation control reserve demand computing method thereof. Simulation is performed by using meteorological data to obtain the output of a photovoltaic array and analyses are performed on the photovoltaic generation wave characteristics of different time scales and different space scales by utilizing photovoltaic array output data; a spectral analysis is performed on the photovoltaic array output data by proposing to use the autoregressive model, so as to obtain the critical time scale of photovoltaic output fluctuations; separation is performed on components of the critical time scale by utilizing a rolling-average method, and the separation proves that the probability distribution effect is good by adopting t distribution fitting, and the AGC (Automatic Generation Control) capacity requirement of an example is obtained by computing, a specific method of operation is provided for a quantitative analysis of the photovoltaic generation power volatility, and a certain reference significance of promotion of intermittent new energy consumption and study of assurance of power network safety operation is realized.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of photovoltaic grid-connected power generation, and in particular relates to a method for calculating the fluctuation of photovoltaic power generation power and its automatic power generation control backup demand based on an autoregressive model. Background technique [0002] Under the current situation of shortage of traditional fossil energy and the development of low-carbon economy, solar photovoltaic power generation has become one of the most promising renewable energy industries due to its clean, renewable and huge reserves. Under the current situation of energy shortage, all countries have stepped up the pace of photovoltaic development. Japan proposed to reach a total photovoltaic power generation of 28GW in 2020. commercial competition. In my country, as of the end of 2013, the country's accumulative grid-connected photovoltaic power generation installed capacity was 19.42 million kilowatts. It ...

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Problems solved by technology

[0003] However, solar photovoltaic power generation is affected by factors such as solar radiation intensity, weather, and ambient temperature, and its output has strong fluctuations, which will adversely affect the safety and stable operation of the power grid.

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