Method and device for predicting evolution trend of internet public opinion

Abstract

The embodiment of the invention provides a method and a device for predicting an evolution trend of an internet public opinion. The method comprises the following steps: collecting data from a network, generating a statistical ratio f<pos>(t) between the number of posts employing a supportive attitude as an emotional trend aiming at the same theme in various time intervals and the total post number according to the obtained data; building a viewpoint interaction model driven by user behaviors according to the characteristics of individual behaviors; generating an optimal value of a system parameter of the viewpoint interaction model according to the statistical ratio f<pos>(t) and the viewpoint interaction model; generating a long-term change curve of the viewpoint interaction model according to the optimal value of the system parameter; carrying out fitting on the long-term change curve and generating an emotional change curve function y(t); generating the optimal value of a factor of the emotional change curve function y(t) by the value of the statistical ratio f<pos>(t) in a time interval [0, T]; and generating a stable value of the emotional change curve function y(t) under the optimal value of the factor as a prediction value of the evolution trend of the same theme.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of network security, in particular to a method and device for predicting the evolution trend of network public opinion. Background technique [0002] In July 2015, China Internet Network Information Center (CNNIC) released the "36th Statistical Report on Internet Development in China" in Beijing, pointing out that by the end of June 2015, the number of Internet users in China had reached 668 million. The report shows that the growth of the number of users has reached a stable level, and the penetration rate of the Internet has greatly increased. The Internet has become an indispensable way for people to obtain information and communicate with each other every day. The Internet is a mirror image of the real society. Local problems in real life may be magnified on the Internet and cause a lot of discussion, which directly reacts on the real society and affects people's lives. And some negative and extreme remarks may ...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

Although these studies have carried out empirical analysis of the model, the amount of data is too small, and it is only used to explain social phenomena, and cannot predict the direction of macro public opinion.

In the field of data mining, the research on public opinion prediction mainly focuses on time series analysis, because usually only the early evolution data of the topic can be obtained, so the evolution trend can only be predicted for a short time, and the stable state of public opinion evolution cannot be judged.

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