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Method for short-term or long-term prediction of electricity sales amount changes of enterprises based on grey correlation

A gray correlation and short-term forecasting technology, applied in the field of power system, can solve the problems of low forecasting accuracy, less consideration of factors of electricity sales changes, lack of data and technical support, etc., and achieve the effect of improving accuracy and improving operation and management

Active Publication Date: 2015-06-03
LONGSHINE TECH
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Problems solved by technology

[0003] Traditional electricity sales forecasts are mostly based on historical experience and lack strong data and technical support: From a data point of view, traditional electricity sales forecasts are simply based on historical electricity consumption levels. Few factors are considered; from a technical point of view, traditional electricity sales forecasts are forecasts based on expert experience, lacking systematic data analysis and forecasting model technical support, resulting in low forecasting accuracy

Method used

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  • Method for short-term or long-term prediction of electricity sales amount changes of enterprises based on grey correlation
  • Method for short-term or long-term prediction of electricity sales amount changes of enterprises based on grey correlation
  • Method for short-term or long-term prediction of electricity sales amount changes of enterprises based on grey correlation

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Embodiment 1

[0049] Embodiment 1 of the present invention: a short-term prediction method based on gray relational changes in electricity sales of enterprises, such as figure 1 , figure 2 shown, including the following steps:

[0050] 1. Obtain indicator data and perform dimensionless processing on it

[0051] Obtain data such as capacity increment, load utilization rate, business change power connection time, suspended power consumption and canceled account power, which are calculated as follows:

[0052] 1. The capacity increment is the change range of the power consumption capacity of the user through the service expansion application process, including the capacity of the newly installed user, the new capacity of the capacity expansion user, and the reduction of the capacity of the capacity reduction user;

[0053] 2. The load utilization rate is the ratio of the user's average power load to the rated capacity;

[0054] 3. The power connection time for the business change is the in...

Embodiment 2

[0066] Embodiment 2 of the present invention: a long-term prediction method based on gray relational changes in electricity sales of enterprises, such as figure 1 shown, including the following steps:

[0067] 1. Obtain indicator data and perform dimensionless processing on it

[0068] To obtain the data of capacity increment, load utilization rate, suspended power consumption and canceled household power, the calculation is as follows:

[0069] 1. The capacity increment is the change range of the power consumption capacity of the user through the service expansion application process, including the capacity of the newly installed user, the new capacity of the capacity expansion user, and the reduction of the capacity of the capacity reduction user;

[0070] 2. The load utilization rate is the ratio of the user's average power load to the rated capacity;

[0071] 3. The suspended power consumption is the average monthly power of the user who has suspended the power consumpti...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a method for short-term or long-term prediction of electricity sales amount changes of enterprises based on grey correlation. The method comprises the following steps: S1, obtaining capacity increment, load utilization rate, (power connection duration in business change), electricity-consumption-pausing electric quantity data and account-cancellation electric quantity data, generating index data, and performing dimensionless treatment on the index data; S2, substituting the index data into a weight model library for calculation, and generating an index weight matrix; S3, calculating comprehensive weight of each index according to a grey correlation algorithm; S4, performing short-term (long-term) prediction on the electricity sales amount changes of the enterprises according to the comprehensive weight of the index. The method can improve the short-term or long-term prediction precision of the electricity sales amount changes of the enterprises.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a short-term and long-term prediction method for changes in electricity sales of enterprises based on gray correlation, and belongs to the technical field of electric power systems. Background technique [0002] The analysis and prediction of electricity sales of enterprises is to realize the business objectives of the power supply enterprises, conduct electricity marketing, planning, production and sales decisions, use advanced technical means and methods, and adopt certain procedures to collect electricity market information in an organized and planned way. And on this basis, scientifically analyze the collected information and data, predict the changing characteristics of the business environment and power demand, and provide a basis for improving business management and implementing correct decision-making. [0003] Traditional electricity sales forecasts are mostly based on historical experience and lack strong data and te...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q30/02G06Q50/06
Inventor 曹方勇余凯郭富磊
Owner LONGSHINE TECH
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