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Method for predicting key industrial electricity consumption based on industrial condition index

A technology of prosperity index and forecasting method, applied in forecasting, data processing applications, instruments, etc., can solve problems such as affecting the safe and reliable power supply of the power grid, affecting the production and operation decision-making and economic benefits of power grid operators

Active Publication Date: 2015-05-27
STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA +1
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Problems solved by technology

The accuracy of power demand will not only affect the safe and reliable power supply of the grid, but also affect the production and operation decisions and economic benefits of grid operators

Method used

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  • Method for predicting key industrial electricity consumption based on industrial condition index
  • Method for predicting key industrial electricity consumption based on industrial condition index
  • Method for predicting key industrial electricity consumption based on industrial condition index

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Embodiment Construction

[0035] A preferred embodiment of the present invention will be described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings.

[0036] The present invention provides a method for forecasting electricity consumption in key industries based on the industry prosperity index. The monthly electricity consumption in key industries is used as historical data to establish an auto-regression model, and the industry prosperity index is used to establish a regression model, which can be used for key industries in the target month A more accurate prediction of electricity consumption can be made to assist the prediction of target monthly industrial electricity consumption.

[0037] The present invention will be further described below by taking the electricity consumption prediction of key industries in Anhui Province from October 2013 to September 2014 as an example.

[0038] S1. Obtain historical sample data of Anhui Province

[0039] The electricity consumption data of key ind...

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Abstract

The invention provides a method for predicting the key industrial electricity consumption based on an industrial condition index. The method comprises the following steps: (1) obtaining the key industrial condition index and historical electricity consumption data; (2) performing seasonal adjustment and a stationary test on the data; (3) judging whether the industrial condition index and the industrial electricity consumption have a causal relationship or not through a Granger causality test and determining an optimal lag period of the condition index; (4) creating a time sequence ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) model of the key industrial electricity consumption, introducing the key industrial condition index into an original ARIMA model, and creating a regressive model; (5) on the basis of an AIC (Akaike information criterion), screening out an optimal model; (6) performing model popularization and application, and predicting the industrial electricity consumption in the future. The key industrial electricity consumption is taken as a study object, the electricity consumption and the influence of the industrial condition index on the electricity consumption are studied by introducing the industrial condition index, the key industrial electricity consumption is accurately predicted in combination with the time sequence model, and a basis is provided for development and planning of electricity industry in the future.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of industry power consumption forecasting, in particular to a key industry power consumption forecasting method based on the industry prosperity index. Background technique [0002] With the continuous deepening of urbanization and industrialization in our country, the demand for electricity consumption has changed dramatically, and the fluctuation of electricity consumption is closely related to the changes in the macro economy. Electricity consumption is a leading economic indicator that reflects the future operation of the real economy. Paying attention to social electricity consumption is of great significance for planning the development of the electric power industry. The accuracy of power demand will not only affect the safe and reliable power supply of the grid, but also affect the production and operation decisions and economic benefits of grid operators. The proportion of industrial electricity co...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/06
Inventor 葛斐杨敏石雪梅叶彬荣秀婷
Owner STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA
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