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Ower grid long-term load characteristic predication method based on variation of electricity consumption structure

A technology of load characteristics and prediction methods, applied in data processing applications, instruments, information technology support systems, etc., can solve problems such as few studies

Active Publication Date: 2014-10-08
STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA +1
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Problems solved by technology

Power grid planning should be forward-looking and forward-looking, so it is particularly important to accurately grasp the long-term load characteristics for regional power grids, but there are few related studies on the quantitative prediction of long-term load characteristics

Method used

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  • Ower grid long-term load characteristic predication method based on variation of electricity consumption structure
  • Ower grid long-term load characteristic predication method based on variation of electricity consumption structure
  • Ower grid long-term load characteristic predication method based on variation of electricity consumption structure

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Embodiment Construction

[0039] Next, the present invention will be further described by taking the long-term load characteristic prediction of the provincial power grid as an example.

[0040] like figure 1 As shown, a long-term load characteristic prediction method of provincial power grid based on the change of electricity structure includes the following steps:

[0041] (1) Long-term economy and electricity consumption structure forecasting at the provincial level

[0042] Prediction of long-term economic structure at the provincial level: Due to the long time span of the long-term economic structure at the provincial level, and being greatly influenced by policy factors such as provincial regional economic development planning, it is difficult for traditional quantitative forecasting models such as regression forecasting to predict reasonable results. Therefore, the prediction of the long-term economic structure of the provincial region can be based on qualitative judgments such as the provincia...

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Abstract

The invention provides a power grid long-term load characteristic predication method based on variation of an electricity consumption structure. The power grid long-term load characteristic predication method comprises the following steps: predicating a typical daily average load of all electricity consumption departments in each season in a target year; calculating a typical daily average load of the whole society in each season in the target year; predicating a typical daily load rate of all the electricity consumption departments in each season in the target year; calculating the maximum typical daily load of all the electricity consumption departments in each season in the target year; predicating the concurrence coincidence factor of the maximum typical daily load of all the electricity consumption departments in each season in the target year; calculating a typical daily load rate of the whole society in each season in the target year; constructing a predication regression model of a typical daily peak valley rate of the whole society in each season in the target year; and predicating the typical daily peak valley rate of the whole society in each season in the target year. The power grid long-term load characteristic predication method can reasonably predicate the typical daily average load rate and typical daily peak valley rate of a regional power grid in the whole society in each season so as to provide reference evidences for electricity market analysis and power grid planning workers to meet the requirements of a reasonable foresight plan of the power grid according to a regional long-term load characteristic variation principle.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of grid long-term load characteristic prediction, in particular to a grid long-term load characteristic prediction method based on changes in electricity consumption structure. Background technique [0002] Load characteristic analysis and forecasting is an important part of power market analysis and forecasting work. Accurate and reasonable grasp of regional power grid load characteristics and development trends can provide important references for grid companies in grid planning, production, operation, etc., such as: guiding power supply The level of load characteristic prediction has become one of the symbols to measure the level of modern management of power grid enterprises. [0003] The previous method of analyzing and predicting load characteristics is based on simulating a typical daily load curve similar to history. Power grid planning should be forward-looking and forward-looking, so it is particu...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q50/06
CPCY04S10/50
Inventor 王宝叶彬葛斐
Owner STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA
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