Wind speed prediction method based on STCP-BP

Abstract

The invention provides a wind speed prediction method based on STCP-BP. The wind speed prediction method based on the STCP-BP includes: firstly, utilizing wind speed and wind direction information of an upwind direction neighborhood point of the prevailing wind direction of a target prediction point to build a spatial and temporal correlation prediction model, and obtaining a wind speed prediction value of the target prediction point; secondly, utilizing historical wind speed data of the target prediction point to build a BP neural network direct multi-step prediction model, and obtaining a future multi-step wind speed prediction value of the target prediction point; and finally, performing mean combination prediction on the two prediction values, and obtaining a wind speed direct multi-step prediction value of the target prediction point. According to the wind speed prediction method based on the STCP-BP, wind speed information of an upwind direction observation point is added on the basis of a traditional neural network prediction method, spatial and temporal correlation properties of wind speed evolution is considered, a statistical method is adopted for achieving multi-step prediction, and wind speed prediction accuracy of wind power plants is improved greatly. The wind speed prediction method based on the STCP-BP can provide reliable reference data for a dispatch department to make and adjust plans, thereby reducing influences of wind power intermittency on power grids.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a wind speed prediction method for a wind farm, belonging to the technical field of power generation. Background technique [0002] With the increasingly prominent environmental problems and the aggravating energy crisis, wind power has developed rapidly. While large-scale wind power grid-connection brings significant environmental and economic benefits, the uncertainty and intermittency of wind energy itself cause wind power grid-connected consumption and grid operation safety issues are becoming increasingly prominent. If the wind power can be accurately predicted, the operating cost and spinning reserve of the power system can be reduced, the penetration power limit of wind power can be increased, and it is beneficial for the dispatching department to adjust the plan in time, thereby reducing the intermittent impact of wind power on the power grid. [0003] At present, there are many types of wind power forecasting methods,...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0004] However, due to the many and complex factors affecting the evolution of wind speed, the wind speed sequence shows strong uncertainty and randomness. Previous short-term wind speed predictions for wind farms were mostly based on the wind speed sequence at the target prediction point, and the prediction accuracy was not high.

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