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Electric return circuit fault probability forecasting method

A failure probability, electrical circuit technology, applied in electrical digital data processing, special data processing applications, instruments, etc., can solve problems such as blanking

Active Publication Date: 2013-06-26
STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA +2
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  • Summary
  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0005] At present, domestic and foreign researches on calculating the failure probability of electrical circuits from the failure probability of power transmission and transformation equipment are still blank, and there are no relevant reports

Method used

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  • Electric return circuit fault probability forecasting method
  • Electric return circuit fault probability forecasting method
  • Electric return circuit fault probability forecasting method

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Embodiment Construction

[0058] The present invention will be further described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and embodiments.

[0059] The electrical circuit failure probability prediction method of the present invention, such as figure 1 As shown, the prediction steps are:

[0060] (1) The health index Hi of the power transmission and transformation equipment in the previous 10 years is counted. The health index of the power transmission and transformation equipment is 100-the value after the deduction value, and the health index Hi is between 0-100. The deduction value is based on the "Condition Maintenance Test Regulations for Power Transmission and Transformation Equipment" and the state evaluation guidelines for related equipment to collect and process the basic state quantities of the equipment to obtain the deduction value of each component.

[0061] The health index evaluation data of a 220kV transformer T1 in a certain area of ​​Hebei in the past ten years is shown i...

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Abstract

The invention relates to an electric return circuit fault probability forecasting method which includes the following steps: (1) counting health indexes of electric transmission and transformation equipment in the past ten years; (2) defining a cloud drop (x,u(x)) by using a statistical value of the health indexes in the past years; (3) establishing a device fault probability forecasting cloud model through a backward cloud generator; (4) producing a needed number of specific cloud drops through a forward cloud generator; (5) detecting whether the cloud drops are placed in a confidence interval; (6) forecasting fault probability of a transformer device in the next year; and (7) defining a fault probability forecasting value of a return circuit where a computing device is placed according to partition of an electric return circuit. On the basis of the cloud model, influences of the service life and self health state of the electric return circuit on fault probability of the electric return circuit, and forecasting computation conducted on the fault probability of the electric return circuit, data support is provided for evaluating reliability of the electric return circuit and computing fault risks of the electric return circuit, and the electric return circuit fault probability forecasting method is good in popularization value and application prospect.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of equipment failure analysis and reliability evaluation, and relates to a method for predicting the failure probability of an electric circuit. Background technique [0002] According to different functions, the electrical circuit is divided into three types: transmission circuit, transformation circuit and bus circuit. The main features of the function of the electrical circuit are: to transmit electric energy from one end to the other within a specific capacity range; to flexibly change the system operation mode; to automatically isolate itself from the entire power system when the circuit fails. As an important part of the power system, the electrical circuit is composed of many power transmission and transformation equipment. Different types of electrical equipment failures have the same impact on the failure rate of the electrical circuit unit. Once a failure occurs, it will seriously affect the transm...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06F19/00
Inventor 胡文平于腾凯段晓波
Owner STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA
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