Dynamic reliability model updating method based on Bayes factor optimization

A technology for model updating and model optimization, applied in special data processing applications, instruments, electrical and digital data processing, etc., can solve problems such as the need for updated information and reliability prediction accuracy that have not yet been carried out, shorten the development cycle, reduce maintenance costs, The effect of strong engineering significance

Inactive Publication Date: 2013-03-20
UNIV OF ELECTRONIC SCI & TECH OF CHINA
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Problems solved by technology

The current research work mainly focuses on the reliability model update method and the expression of the verification index, but the research on the relationship between the update information requirement and the reliability prediction accuracy has not yet been carried out.

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  • Dynamic reliability model updating method based on Bayes factor optimization
  • Dynamic reliability model updating method based on Bayes factor optimization
  • Dynamic reliability model updating method based on Bayes factor optimization

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Embodiment Construction

[0017] General method of the present invention is described below in conjunction with accompanying drawing:

[0018] Such as figure 1 As shown, a dynamic reliability model update method based on Bayesian factor optimization includes the following steps:

[0019] Step 1: Analyze the failure physics of the product, establish the failure physics reliability model of the product (the full name is the dynamic reliability approximation model based on failure physics), use Monte Carlo simulation to conduct dynamic reliability analysis on the failure physics reliability model, and estimate that in a certain some given time t i Reliability R at (i=1,2,...,l) point 0 (t i ), l is a natural number;

[0020] Reliability R 0 (t i ) is calculated as formula (1):

[0021] R 0 ( t i ) = Pr { g ( d ...

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Abstract

The invention relates to a dynamic reliability model updating method based on Bayes factor optimization. The dynamic reliability model updating method comprises the following steps that 1, the failure physics of a product is analyzed, a failure physics reliability model of the product is built, and reliability degree R0 (ti) at some given time points is estimated; 2, the relevant reliability information of the product is collected in sites, the reliability information is subjected to statistics and physical property analysis, a statistics reliability model is built, and reliability degree at some given time points is estimated; and 3, the failure physics reliability model is used as a selection model, in-site reliability data and reliability test data are combined, and a Bayes factor expression at different time intervals is built. The dynamic reliability model updating method has the beneficial effects that the dynamic reliability model updating at small samples is realized, and meanwhile, higher practical values and higher engineering significance are realized on the reliability design optimization of new generation products of new technology and new materials.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of reliability analysis, in particular to the technical field of reliability analysis of electromechanical products. Background technique [0002] At present, product reliability analysis is mostly realized based on statistical data or failure models determined through experience, so it is also called statistical reliability analysis method. This is a top-down reliability analysis method that requires a large amount of field or test data for support. At the same time, this reliability analysis method cannot establish the connection between statistical data and product failure physics, so it cannot meet the reliability evaluation requirements under the application of new materials and new technologies. [0003] The reliability analysis method based on failure physics mainly starts from the mechanism that affects the degradation and failure of materials and systems, and fully considers the change law of mater...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06F17/50
Inventor 汪忠来黄洪钟张小玲刘宇朱顺鹏肖宁聪张雪飞
Owner UNIV OF ELECTRONIC SCI & TECH OF CHINA
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