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Short-term power load forecast method

A technology of short-term power load and forecasting method, which is applied in the field of power load and can solve problems such as inaccurate forecasting

Inactive Publication Date: 2012-09-19
LUDONG UNIVERSITY
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Problems solved by technology

[0029] Aiming at the inaccurate prediction of the prior art, the present invention provides a short-term power load forecasting method that can effectively improve the accuracy of load forecasting

Method used

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Embodiment Construction

[0056] The principles and features of the present invention are described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings, and the examples given are only used to explain the present invention, and are not intended to limit the scope of the present invention.

[0057] Such as figure 1 As shown, a short-term power load forecasting method described in Embodiment 1 of the present invention specifically includes the following steps:

[0058] Step 1: Select the load data and weather data of 40 days before the current moment, and use them as training samples. The composition index of the sample data is obtained by using the correlation analysis method, and the sample value at each moment in the data sample is composed of 12 indexes. Among them, 1-3 are the three load values ​​before the time t of the forecast day, 4-6 are the three load values ​​before the time t of the day before the forecast day, and 7-9 are the load values ​​before the time t of the same day one week ago. 1...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a short-term power load forecast method which comprises the following steps of: 1, selecting 40 days of load data and weather data before the current moment as training sample data and forecast sample data; 2, preprocessing the sample data, and normalizing all the data to be between 0 and 1; 3, selecting parameters (gamma and sigma) as harmonic vectors, and calculating new harmonics (gamma' and sigma') by using a harmonic search algorithm; 4, calculating a target evaluation function value, and determining the harmonic vector corresponding to the maximum target evaluation function value and; 5, updating the iterative frequency k=k+1, and judging whether k belongs to NI; and 6, substituting the optimal harmonic (gamma0 and sigma0) into a least squares support vector machine model, training by the training sample, and further forecasting the load. According to the method, the load forecast precision is effectively improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a forecasting method, in particular to a short-term power load forecasting method, belonging to the field of power loads. Background technique [0002] Power load forecasting is an important research issue in the field of power systems. It refers to exploring the internal relationship between power loads through the analysis and research of historical data based on the known power system, economy, society, weather, etc. And the law of development and change, make pre-estimation and speculation on the development of load. [0003] Scientific prediction is the basis and guarantee for correct decision-making. Power load forecasting is a very important content in power dispatching, an important part of the power management system, and a prerequisite for safe and economical operation of the power grid. The stable operation of the power system requires that the power generation can keep up with the change of the system load, and th...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06F19/00
Inventor 刘晓华高荣
Owner LUDONG UNIVERSITY
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